Monday, August 30, 2010

Taking off the gloves for a bearish Andy Xie - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Is there a bubble in China's real estate. Yes says independent analyst Andy Xie, but our Shaun Rein takes on that assumption. When 60 percent of the apartments in Beijing are paid for in cash, there is no bubble, he tells CNBC. Both opponents are going to cross swords later this week at CNBC.
Also, more on Shaun Rein bearish predictions for the four state-owned banks like the AgBank, who announced sky-high profits last week.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Chinese women, the new spending force

The BundChanging families values
Chinese women are becoming a new force in domestic consumption as they command half of the household budget, writes Newsweek, who tapped into the brains of Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French, all speakers for the China Speakers Bureau.
Shaun Rein on the figures:
For Western companies, the rise of the female consumer in China is a welcome change. For years, multinationals ignored Chinese women because their contribution to household income was so small—a fact “that’s changed dramatically,” says Shaun Rein, managing director of the China Market Research Group. In the 1950s women contributed just 20 percent of household income. That rose to about 40 percent in the 1990s and then reached 50 percent last year, according to Rein....
Rein’s firm recently found that women younger than 35 are the most optimistic segment in China, with a whopping 80 percent of the 3,500 women surveyed saying they’ll spend more in the second half of 2010 than they did in the first half. With trends like these, Chinese women may bring new meaning to the term “the power of the purse.”
But those women might have other ambitions than the women in the US or Europe today, says Paul French:
At the same time, advertisers are finding that Chinese women crave security, and that portraying women in advertising as fully independent may not work. Paul French, founder of Shanghai market research firm Access Asia, says women want job success, a husband, and 1.0 children with a villa in the suburbs, so advertisements are “similar to cupcake ads in America in 1953,” he says. “Let’s create the perfect family.”
And warns Tom Doctoroff:
“Chinese women are not indulgent consumers,” says Tom Doctoroff, greater China CEO at the advertising agency JWT.
More in Newsweek.
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Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French all belong to the Chinese Speakers Bureau. Do you need one of them - or all together - at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

US sends radar upgrades to Taiwan - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickWendel Minnick by Fantake via Flickr
In a move that is likely going to upset China, the US has send radar upgrades to Taiwan for its Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF), writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
The announcement came during a two-day tri-service military exercise in southern Taiwan from Aug. 24-25.
During the exercise, a Ministry of National Defense (MND) source said the radar deal was part of phase two of the IDF's F-CK-1C/D Hsiang Sheng upgrade program. Specifics of the deal were not released.
China has not yet reacted.
moves comes amid rising tensions between China on one side and its neighbors and US on the other side, regularly documented by Wendell Minnick.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or meeting, do get in touch.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Chinese brands moving up the value chain - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein   by Fantake via Flickr
Chinese brands might have been competing on prices and distribution in 2005, in 2010 they are moving up in the value chain and worry Western brands, writes Shaun Rein in Forbes. Quality and image-building have entered China's board rooms.
Look at Google. Our research suggests that Google failed in China in large part because consumers believed that Baidu had far better Chinese-language search capabilities, not just because of an unfair playing field. In head-to-head search comparisons we conducted, Baidu's results weren't necessarily much better than Google's, but its branding as the site that knows Chinese better than Google and that has technology as good has helped it dominate. Unused to serious local competition, Google was slow to roll out local services and marketing campaigns that would resonate with Chinese consumers. Similarly, Ctrip, an online travel site, is beating up Expedia, and Taobao, the online auction site, remains far ahead of eBay. They are better branded, and they fit the needs of local consumers better.
 More trends multinational companies have to watch out for in China in Forbes: rising labor costs and the new focus on domestic consumption.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The barrow boy grocer from Tesco - Paul French

paulfrenchPaul French  via Flickr
Some foreign companies do well in China, others fail. And some have a more rollerskating experience like Tesco, recalls retail analyst Paul French in the Telegraph. The UK retailer set off on a wrong foot with Taiwanese management, but took a good turn when Mr. Towle, a real grocer from the UK moved over.
Mr Towle has been in China for five years, and has no plans to leave. Under his leadership, the operation is clearly gaining momentum. Tesco did not make the best start in China, paying £140m (a rather steep price-earnings multiple of 51 times) in 2004 for a 50pc stake in Hymall, a Taiwanese supermarket chain with 25 stores.
“So many weird things happened at those stores,” said Paul French, a retail analyst at Access Asia. “It probably would have ended in a labour dispute these days. The staff hated the Taiwanese management and they used to talk about sabotaging the products and so on.
"The UK management sent over some people to try to tell the Taiwanese what to do and in the end they just got rid of them all. Since then, it has all been running well.”
A year after his arrival in China, Mr Towle took 90pc control of the venture for a further £180m and last year Tesco finally clinched the remainder.
Inside his stores, Mr Towle, who has been with Tesco for 25 years, working up from the bakery section, can reel off the prices of any of his products and will happily discuss catchment areas, layout and volumes.
“He’s a good old-fashioned grocer,” said Mr French. “Basically, to understand the Chinese consumer, you have to be a barrow boy grocer. They get it immediately. What was needed was a good deal of ruthlessness. In a business where you have a 2pc margin, you need to be ruthless.”
More in The Telegraph.

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Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Saturday, August 21, 2010

Vietnam and US getting closer, thanks to China - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnickvia Flickr
China's maritime actions are enticing Vietnam to edge closer to the US, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News. 
The United States is taking advantage of Vietnamese angst over Chinese arrests of Vietnamese fishermen, threats against multinational oil companies operating in Vietnamese waters, increased naval exercises and the establishment of a submarine base on Hainan Island.Beijing appears to have abandoned its “smile campaign” toward Southeast Asia; Vietnam is responding accordingly, said Richard Bitzinger, a regional defense analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.


Tension between the countries is likely to rise, later in the year, writes Minnick:
The United States and Vietnam are to hold their first military-to-military talks in the final quarter of this year. Vietnam could agree to send officers to advanced education courses in the United States, said Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.


More background here.
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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his thoughts on China as a military power, please get in touch.

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Friday, August 20, 2010

'Black children' a rural myth - Zhang Juwei

zjwpic2Zhang Juwei  by Fantake via Flickr
For a long time the existence of 'black children' at China's country side- offspring outside the country's one-child policy and not accounted for in its statistics - were seen as an illegal but useful counter measure for the aging problem and the shortage of cheap labor. But the rural fertility rate is not as high as many hope for, tells CASS-director Zhang Juwei in The Economist. 
The Economist:
The recent CASS report said the rate that would be expected if women had exactly as many children as allowed would be 1.47. The government uses the higher figure believing that many “black children” were missed by censuses. But the report disagreed, saying such serious underreporting was unlikely. It said data showed that the 150m-strong migrant population has a fertility rate of only 1.14 (similar to that of registered urban residents). This belies the common image of migrants as big producers of unauthorised offspring. Zhang Juwei of CASS believes the overall fertility rate is no higher than 1.6.
China cannot avoid its looming ageing problem, but these lower fertility estimates suggest its impact could be greater than officials have bargained for. The CASS study calls for a “prompt” change of policy to get the fertility rate up to around the “replacement level” of 2.1. The problem could be in persuading Chinese to have more children. In cities and wealthier rural areas, surveys found that the number of babies women said they actually wanted would produce a fertility rate well below 1.47.
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Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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