economy - Is the growth sustainable?



One of the very relevant issues that came up last Thursday in the Q&A session after my talk at the meeting of the German chamber of commerce on my book was the question whether China's economic growth is sustainable. The question was brought up by the moderator, who had already read my book, and knew I had some outspoken viewpoints on that issue.
The question of economic sustainability is closely related to the question whether China's political regime survives. In the decade I have been living in China, I have noted a great number of doomsday scenario's, starting with the ailing Deng Xiaoping up to SARS as one of the more recent events. All those doomsday scenario's have on thing in common: they did not cause the collapse of China as a political entity. On the contrary, I have seen the political system only grow in terms of selfconfidence and strength. In that way I might be the prisoner of my own history with China, but I have become very sceptical about those doomsday stories.
That does not mean that there are no huge bears on the road that threathen China's economic growth. In fact, it will need all the skills of politicians to avoids big scale disasters, on its financial structure, the environment, the energy policy, AIDS to mention a few. But since media are only interested in those issues when they are a deadly threath to China's overall political future, decent coverage is often lacking. Media have been waiting for 15 years for a full-scale collapse, anything less might bore their audiences - and certainly my editors - to death.