protest - Shanghai gets act together

Hongqiao, Shanghai last Saturday

Last night a meeting of the Shanghai Foreign Correspondents Club and a good moment to compare notes with colleagues on the recent anti-Japanese demonstrations in the city. One warning ahead: remember that all politics in China is local politics. What can be valid conclusions for Shanghai, might be different in Beijing, Shenzhen or Hong Kong.
First conclusion: Shanghai government was sending out different messages to different constituencies. At the level of work units people was told not to demonstrate, at universities students was told they could if they behaved. And the local police send out a rather ambivalent messages that could be read either way. Many demonstrators believe the government did not approve their 'patriottic deeds'.
Second: the message is now clear: no more demonstrations. The number of real demonstrators (10,000 plus 10,000 police men) was lower than the Shanghai government feared, so they seem confident enough to stop new demonstrations. Students have been told that it is over now.
One of the reasons for the rather ambivalent attitude towards the demonstrations was a noted decrease of popularity over the past three years of the local authorities. While there are no elections, the government is following popular sentiment very closely and in Shanghai it does not look good. Scandals on real estate have tarnished the previously very popular local government and the efforts to keep the real-estate bubble growing are associated with certain parts of the government, who can cash in massively as long as the bubble does not burst. While a bursting bubble would cause financial damage for the current house owners, the drop in prices would benefit larger numbers of Shanghainese. At least, that is one of the explanations going around.

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