I have seen other media, apart from Business Week, seen writing about the subject, but must have lost these reports in the flood of information hitting my computer these days. China is going to revamp its economic figures, including their GDP-figures, in an effort to get in line with international practises. Unconfirmed rumors say GDP will end up 20 percent higher after the revamp, expected next week.
"You could say China is actually 20 percent richer than anybody initially thought," Qu Hongbin, an economist for financial services firm HSBC Corp. in Hong Kong, said Wednesday.I and my fellow China observer Ari van der Steenhoven do have to disagree with Qu's assesment and when the official GPD-figures only go up 20 percent, we have to conclude that the beancounters have not done their work correctly.
Based on the financial lives of my friends in Shanghai, my estimation would be that about half of the economy is not covered by the official system. Van der Steenhoven, who has more experience outside Shanghai itself, would disagree and estimate it on 90 percent of the economy. In any case: 20 percent is far too little.
Update: The Financial Times has some more background.
The revision is also expected to show the economy is less reliant on investment and more driven by consumption than previously projected, two trends that Chinese leaders have been trying to encourage.Information on economic growth
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