internet - Is Shanghai's IPTV going to work?

The Shanghai Media Group (SMG), one of the country's largest media conglomerates, has been getting some publicity after it officially launced its IPTV-service, together with China Telecom. The deal bowls down to a China Telecom broadband connection, costing about 120 Renminbi per month, and an additional 'service package' by SMG, ranging between 60 and 100 renminbi per month. The users would get a set-up box, costing about 1,500 Renminbi, but it is unclear whether they get this for free or have to pay an installation fee.
Now an average household would pay about 20 renminbi for a cable connection and in Shanghai - depending on where you exactly live - you can get over 90 broadcasting stations. The number does not matter that much, since most of the broadcasts are equally boring. In the exceptional case a regional broadcaster has a commercially smart idea, like the "Super Girl" competition, the dinosaurs of the censorship move in to kill or at least tone down such a smart plan.
So, will the new service offer anything the Shanghainese are going to pay for? I do not think they will do this in large numbers. SMG is rather modest in their estimations too: they expect this year between 60,000 and 100,000 customers.
At the end of 2006, beginning of 2007 tough competition for IPTV will emerge as China's telecom companies start rolling out the third generation mobile communication that will provide wireless broadband connections to the whole country. China Mobile has already started with a 'trial' in the six Olympic cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, covering much of the more lucrative market already with the TD-SCDMA, China's own standard. Later in 2007 other telecoms including China Telecom will get licenses for their own networks.
Also in this case, technology, pricing and content will be the three deciding factors over success or failure of the new technology. The targets for the 3G-deployment are a bit more agressive than those of the IPTV. China's telecom's expect to sign up each year about 33 million users, allowing them to offer their technology at a rather discounted price. Unlike SMG the new parties have to tradition of killing creativity through censorship, making their offer at least in theory more exciting.
I would not put my money in IPTV.