DrOMM via Flickr When I watched US financial institutions like Lehman, Merill Lynch, AIG and others melt away, I feared already that official stock watchers would make a link between the Shanghai stock exchange and that massive downturn.I did not have time to check all the news yet (some people also have to make a living), but the first hit has been scored.
Now, making sense out of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is tough enough and even the real experts - the Shanghainese themselves - got it wrong again as many lost this year together with the SSE 60 percent of its initial value. The only 'system' I could discover was that the SSE would to up, when the global markets would go down. And the other way around of course.
Last night I suggested that, since the global markets were hit so badly, the only logic reaction of the Shanghai stock exchange would be to go up. Today the market went not only down, but actually broke the 2,000 index southwards. If the market would have gone up, I would have been right, but it would also have suggested that there would be a logic connected to the movements of the Chinese stock markets.
I still stand on my viewpoint that the financial markets in China are still too much separated from the global markets to suggest a clear connection between a global downturn and those Chinese markets. That might change in the future, but I do not believe many non-Chinese people in Shanghai have been watching what happened to Lehman at all.
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