China Crisis Watch (5)
When governments all over the world started to pump hundreds of billions into a collapsing financial system, Joe the Plumber - as Mr. and Mrs. Average seem to be called today - were wondering what was actually happening. What were all these banks doing and why were so many transactions between banks happening? For people in the trade industry that is a no-brainer: the letters of credit or l/c's are a major source of activity and revenue. Some people have been writing to me, complaining the costs for l/c went up to USD 1,000 over the past few months, making the tool rather hard to use for smaller companies.
When you need a container of teddy bears from China, in most cases you need a letter of credit. That is the payment for your order in China that is being stalled with a trusted bank, to guarantee the order is paid when the container arrives in good order. So, you do not pay directly to your supplier, but use this tool that give a guarantee to both the buyer and the seller.
When no l/c's are created anymore, or against too high costs, trade is coming to a stand-still. One of the purpuses of refinancing banks by their different national governments is not only to keep mortages going, but also to keep the l/c's going.
I did get some indirect signals that things are not well, but the trade industry has kept rather silent, maybe also because they were afraid to open a box of Pandorra, making the problems even bigger than they are. But now massive government subsidies are getting the place it is an obvious question: have there been problems with l/c's? And are they now being solved with all this government support?
Links
China Law Blog: Business Bankruptcy In China. The Five Fold Path
Reuters: GE private equity arm holding off on new China buy
Forbes: How Slow Can China Go?
Amy Sommersby Fons1 via Flickr
The Economist: China may weather a global downturn
China Daily: Exporters come to terms with global slowdown
China Briefing: CIC denies major losses in the U.S.
Economic Observer: Santa Claus' China Operation Not So Jolly
The Guardian: The crisis crosses the Pacific: Rio Tinto warns of Chinese economy's 'pause for breath'
The Independent: Markets feel the chill from China
Commercial
Our speakers at the China Speakers Bureau cannot solve all your problem, but they can offer some insights. Do let us know if you need their help.
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1 Comments:
At Letter of Credit forum
I have seen anecdotal data that LC's are becoming more expensive, that banks are not willing to lend even though sufficient collateral (meaning the goods) is available.
Furthermore, shipping lines are going bust because shipping rates decline as evidenced by the Baltic index.
Let's hope that the mood changes, since mood seems to be the thing that drives the current developments more than actual data and analysis.
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