China's economic growth for 2009: 8.94%
via WikipediaJust before it is too late I have to join the latest game among economists and give my prediction for China's economic growth in 2009. I did not want to do so, but when AT Kearney got their ludicrous prediction of 6 percent even quoted in the China Daily, I had to act.My firm believe is that economic growth next year will be 8.94 percent.
Why would the China Daily quote AT Kearney on their baseless prediction of 6 percent? Only to manage our expectations. After solid two-digit growth for as long as we know China at the China Herald, now growth will fall. China will still grow like crazy compared to developed countries, but by quoting the lowest possible estimation, we might actually think at the end of 2009 that is has not been that bad.
I do not like these games, so I'm giving you the only truthful estimation on China's growth in 2009.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=173dcf19-2906-4345-9a16-c744781b755e)
8 Comments:
Yes, the CDaily quotes it, but only to refute it straight away.
PS. I like your 8.94, and I wish you luck with that. Meanwhile I will stick to my lucky number: 7.5
You are certainly too low :-)
Head in the sand again...
I highly respect your work Mr. Tuinstra, but in the recent months, your blog is a collection of out of this world optimistic predictions (by some of your speakers as well).
Time to wake up I think...
The trend is on the dark side, not on the bright side.
Trends, trends, and trends... They lead somewhere, people should pay attention to them. Living in the present to envision events that will happen in months ago, is not a very successful approach, sorry to say. Anticipation is key.
It's always the same scenario here in China: And incredible outlook, the sky is blue... Then we switch to cloudy shades.., then we end up in the fog...
Then it's the catastrophic scenario.
It's starting to be a caricature almost.
I mean, common, we've been there and done that as we say...
Perhaps you are right, most likely you are right, but I will explain where my optimism comes from. It is only an explanation, and might well be wrong.
When I arrived in China, most of the people were able to convince me that China was heading for a severe crisis. Deng Xiaoping was on his lengthy deathbed and many people - including my handlers at the ministry of foreign affairs - feared a severe crisis after his long delayed death.
It did not happen and since then I have seen about two dozen of doomsday scenarios that had two things in common. First, they were very convincing, second, they did not work out. Of course, in China has its daily share of crises, but they never justified the doomsday scenarios that have dominated much of China's recent past.
Now, I'm looking at doomsday scenario 31 and there might a reason enough that this time the nay sayers are right. Only, I cannot look at these scenarios with dry eyes. I still remember the 30 that did not lead to a breakdown.
I might be wrong, but I need more to be convinced.
I think you have not validated my last comment, so I'll take the occasion to post another one:
http://www.pekingduck.org/2008/11/china-calamity-or-calm-wapo-vs-nyt/#comment-74859
This is something I've said a while ago on another blog...
I am a firm believer that it will become true very soon. Once people start to realize what's going on.
The picture is so much bigger than what we think.
It's scary.
But sadly true.
http://www.mutantpalm.org/2008/11/27/golden-oldies-of-us-propaganda-red-chinese-battle-plan.html
Just wondering how you came up with your figure? Keeping in mind that AT KEarney is one of the top consulting companies in the world.Do you have researched numbers upon which you base your figure?
I don't agree with 6%, but i enjoy playing devils advocate.
anyone who goes to decimal points in China is an idiot
Average post, average point, average impression?!
A friendly jibe. These days, to get a journalist to steal one's opinion it seems it's necessary to run a subscription service (and get quoted) or to be an insider and not get cited (despite sharing a privileged level of knowledge).
But seriously, quality beats quantity and this blog is perhaps verging more on the latter than the former recently.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home