Monday, November 10, 2008

China's investments: true or window dressing?

Details of traditional architecture of BeijingChinese window dressing?
via Wikipedia
The formal announcement by China's central government over the weekend it is going to spend four trillion Renminbi or 450 billion euro to pump into its economy. The official message by the official news agency lacked details, but it caused widespread enthusiasm, including rising stock markets, not only in China, but worldwide.
Obvious, everybody was waiting for some positive news in these stressed times, but what I found striking was the lack of skepticism that goes along with government announcements in general and especially those in China, where official media just follow the official lines for important issues like this.
Now, it seems obvious that China is going to invest heavily in infrastructure, but how much exactly where? And is this really new investments or are the Beijing spindoctors (yes, they have them too) just playing around with figures to create the illusion that China is doing its bit to help the world out of its financial crisis?
In a China Speakers Bureau podcast Shanghai-based lawyer Amy Sommers already pointed out that the announced extra investments in China's railway system had been already on the agenda much longer. The question seems justified: how much of the four trillion renminbi is actual window-dressing, and how much is true new investments? Is it a nice way to play the stock markets and the international political climate? I'm not yet convinced.

Update: "An illusion of the highest order". Appropriate qualification in Seeking Alpha.

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