How slow is China's export going?
via WikipediaI'm not old enough to have experienced the Great Depression of the 1930s, but the story says that what we see in the making today might have a similar disastrous effect. I just saw this report by Bloomberg on the export in October from China, and it is not yet enough to make me panic. After warning we are up for a shock, the newswire reports:
Exports climbed 19.2 percent in October from a year earlier after gaining 21.5 percent in September, the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. The trade surplus swelled to a record $35.2 billion as import growth weakened.Yes indeed, export rose double-digit and the trade surplus was again a record. What kind of crisis is this? Is it only me or do I see a contradiction between the stories of the closing export industry and the fast rising exports? I should call some of my learned economists.
Commercial
Trying to make sense out of what China is doing to avoid the economic
Arthur Kroeberby Fons1 via Flickrdownturn? At the China Speakers Bureau we have leading speakers on China's economic development. When you need them, do give us a call.
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1 Comments:
What would be interesting to see is the nature of the export.
My intuition (based on litle data, though) tells me that low end suppliers selling very cheap and poor quality products are being hit and shut down. While some higher end companies, with better value for the money, are still exporting.
If true, this should not be a surprise: for at least 3 years, the Central Government is doing all it can to bring China's industry up the value chain. Remember the initial change in VAT rebate (making low value add products, high energy or raw material consuming products less attractive for export), then the new labor law, making it more difficult to build competitive advantages out of squeezing your employees. I would think that most of those companies are being hurt the most.
If anyone has data to support or counter this "theory", I am interested.
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