Weblog with daily updates of the news on a harmonious, socialist society, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
Killing a chicken to frighten the monkey is a saying all to often to describe China's culture of crackdowns. You make a lot of noise and do some nasty things, hoping the bigger evil will stay away. When media, like here, started to report about the newest crackdown, focusing on now the 60th birthday of the People's Republic of China, it was very hard not to start laughing. When you have been living in China, you know that "crackdowns" are part of life and as long as you are no monkey, you can stay on the save side.
But, hold on, what if a "crackdown" that would in China mainly trigger off a giggle - unless you were the chicken, of course - would become a permanent state of affairs on an international level? Last year, China's security alerts killed tourism surrounding the Beijing Olympics. While the Olympics went on smoothly, 2008 was a disaster for tourism and many other industries.
Now, the first stories about F-visas being restricted are already been revived. What still the strive to maintain a harmonious society, as here reported by the China Digital Times will throw the country into another public relation fit. What if next year's Worldexpo 2010 in Shanghai will trigger off a similar reaction of limited visa, severe security measures, on top of the already troublesome economic global climate?
China is become a mature state and having huge events should be a part of normality, not of a crackdown in any kind. It might take a while for this message to become part of a culture of crackdowns, but it is time that Deng Xiaoping's message of China opening its gates becomes critical again.
While some might see some positive economic signs in China, assistant-professor Victor Shih sticks to his gun and does not see a real recovery. In his weblog he points at all those important signals that are still not well and not encouraged by the 5 trillion renminbi stimulus package:
1. First of all, export and FDI continue to fall at a pretty fast pace, which can't be helped.
2. More alarming, inventory for many industrial goods continue to build UP! According to a recent note by Stephen Green's team, refined oil inventory is up over 35% YoY as of the end of February.
3. Coal inventory seems to have gone down, but that's because many coal mines have ceased to operate. The 21st Century Business Herald reported that 50-70% of mines are "resting" for the moment. Iron ore mines are facing the same problem as international iron ore now costs less than domestic ore.
4. Electricity usage continues to be in negative territory.
On May 14 the China Speakers Bureau will hold its next Global China Chat, this time with Sam Flemming , the managing director of CIC, the leading firm for checking out online trends, the internet in China. Questions to be answers:
How is the Chinese internet working differently from the internet elsewhere
How are Chinese consumers using the internet to let their voice be heard.
How can you get your marketing ideas from consumers
The live debate will be split in two sections, to facilitate different time zones. The first Global China Chat focusing on Asia and Europe, will be hosted at 5PM Beijing Time, 9AM UCT and 11AM CEST in the first interface. (Note that the time is only given in CEST).
The second chat, in the second interface, focusing on office hours in Europe and the Americas will be held at 5PM CEST, 11 AM EDT, 8AM PDT and 11 PM Beijing time. On May 14 new interfaces will be on top of this weblog. You can register now and send already your questions for Sam Flemming to Fons Tuinstra .
Gloomy reports in Western media on mass dismissals and social unrest among China's migrant workers as the export industry seemed to suffer from downsizing have proven to be wrong, writes Arthur Kroeber (together with Tom Miller) in todays Financial Times. In Henan province, largest supplier of migrant workers, not over 20 million workers became unemployed, but rather half a million, a manageable problem in the heavy populated province.
Restructuring of the state-owned industry has costs 50 million jobs between 1995 and 2005, in size a much larger problems as many of the laid-off were really no longer fit for the labor market. From the FT:
Aside from some localised protests, sacked workers have been far busier finding new jobs than venting their rage. This is unsurprising: migrants working in export factories and construction sites are accustomed to finding work where they can and many have been dismissed before. Chinese migrant labourers are among the most flexible in the world....
This is not to make light of the current situation: millions of vulnerable migrants have lost their jobs and times are tough. But the resilience of China's workers should not be underestimated, and fears of social unrest caused by unemployed migrants have been greatly exaggerated.
Zhang Juwei , deputy director of the Institute for Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has joined the China Speakers Bureau . His institute is one of the leading think tanks, providing central and provincial government advice on their economic and labor policies.
Zhang's institute was one of the first to challenge the common cliche of China as an unlimited source of cheap labor, and predicted a labor shortage in the years to come. Zhang Juwei address also broader economic dilemma's China is facing, as the world is watching how the country seems to be the first to get out of the global recession.
Since a few years the Dutch secret service, called the AIVD, is a little bit less secret and publishes annual reports on new trends.Today was the day of its publication and a set of press conferences. Remarkable: China and the Chinese was three times mentioned. (Here is a summery in DeGeleDraak, offering also a link to the whole report; as you might imagine, both are in Dutch.)
First it mentions the attacks by Chinese hackers on different networks in the Netherlands. Both companies and the government are on the receiving end. The head of the AIVD just told in an interview that there was no prove the Chinese government was backing those attacks, but they were there anyway. (Just today also the news broke that Chinese hackers downloaded all the information of the JSF fighter plane the Dutch air force wants to buy in the US. Dutch parliament is still trying to get the information they need for decide on this purchase. I happy to pass on that information, if somebody lays his hands on it.)
China - and the Dutch secret service does not say who exactly - is also trying to get more influence on the Chinese communities in the Netherlands, the report says. Chinese in Holland are used for intelligence operations, it says.
More interesting is that the Dutch AIVD is noticing that China's interest is not limited to the Chinese community, but is also trying actively to influence decision making processes, for example in politics.
To be honest, that I actually find the least worrying part: it is about time China gets its lobbying practices a bit in line of what is common between nations. Of course other countries try to influence the Netherlands - for example by trying to sell the much too expensive JSF to the Netherlands. The Dutch government should provide funding to teach Chinese how to become part of the lobbying circus, not let its secret service complain about it.
The internet has changed the world for companies working in China, says CIC-founder Sam Flemmingin the magazine of Wharton Business School on China and CSR-systems. CIC tracks online debate on the Chinese internet. Sam Flemming:
"The world wide web now serves essentially as an amplifier, vastly increasing the reach and influence of the word-of-mouth conversations on brands that previously took place offline. The migration online has not only increased the potential readership of comments on brands to some 250 million Chinese netizens; these comments are also now archived, so that they are rarely forgotten and can be easily referenced again later."...
"Tracking online opinion not only allows a company to react quickly when an online public relations crisis is brewing -- such as Carrefour in the recent Sichuan earthquake -- but also helps the company identify key online stakeholders. These stakeholders, who are sometimes simply fans of the brand, can be very helpful in managing the company's brand online."
Commercial Sam Flemming is a renowned speaker on the effects of the internet on China and the online word-of-mouth. He is represented by the China Speakers Bureau . Do get in touch when you need him at your conference.
Shaun Rein of CMR in Shanghai looks ahead at the future of international car makers as the Shanghai auto show opens for business today.
At CNBC he explains why the top end of the market, Mercedes and BMW is still growing by 30-50 percent, providing China's rich the car they want. Also in the lower end of the market, under 1.6 liter, he sees great potential, as the Chinese government has been stimulating the car market very much.
But he is more somber about the middle segment of the market, the classic middle class car, and is not so sure whether GM and Chrysler can be saved by China. More at CNBC
Commercial Shaun Rein is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . When you are interested in having him at your conference, do let us know.
Celebrity speaker Warren Liu , author of a ground-breaking book on the success of KFC in China, will visit the United States end of May, June and a part of July. His thorough analysis of why the American food chain succeeded in China, where many other famous American firms failed, is based on his solid experience in both Chinese business and academia.
Ken Lieberthal, a leading scholar on China at the University of Michigan, is praising Warren Liu's book:
"Warren Liu's fascinating book provides deep insights into the enormous success of KFC in the Chinese market. He unravels the key factors-not only KFC's overall strategy but its embrace of localization, rapid execution, and other adaptations-that spell success, even against McDonald's-------and he tells the story with
The question how important the export is for China's economy has been discussed often, also here, and the ongoing global crisis seems to be a way to test who is right and who is wrong. Officially China's export represents 30 to 40 percent of its GDP. But - and that is the side I take - since much of the exported products have been imported first, the value China's international trade adds is closer to ten percent.
While the decline of China's export over the past year has been dramatic, the effects - including the measured rise in unemployed - are huge but manageable. The number of over 20 million extra unemployed is about the same amount of jobs China has to create in 'normal' times per year to create positions for the new entrants at the labor market.
While it is too early to say that China's economy is back on its way upward, early signs have a positive tendency and papers, like here the Financial Times, are reviving the export debate. The FT quotes pros and cons, but I sill find the following more convincing:
One school of thought has it that the bulk of growth in recent years has been driven by domestic demand rather than exports. Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, argues that only about 8 per cent of the workforce is actually employed in export industries and that, even at the peak of China's recent trade expansion, net exports accounted for only about a sixth of growth. "By any measure, China is one of the least export-exposed economies in Asia," he says.
The article gives the example of Apple's iPod to explain why the export has such a limited impacts on China's economy:
A research paper published last year by economists from the University of California at Berkeley and Irvine mapped the economic value-added from making iPods. Although the product left a Chinese factory with a price of $150 they estimated that only 5 per cent of that value was created in China because important components were imported. Moreover, Chinese workers received only 2 per cent of the wages paid during the product's manufacture.
Dwindling value of the Chinese stock markets might have hit China's wealthy dramatically, the number of millionaires on the mainland in Renminbi has hit a record 825,000, says Rupert Hoogewerf in his latest Hurun report, writes the China Daily. More than 51,000 have even more than 100 million Renminbi.
Rupert Hoogewerf has been tracking China's wealthy since 1999. The China Daily:
According to the new report, the number of wealthy people with more than 10 million yuan in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai made up nearly half of the total.
Beijing, with a population at more than 16 million, boasts the highest number of millionaires -- at around 143,000.
The capital was followed by south China's Guangdong province, where the number of 10-million tycoons reached 137,000. The business hub of Shanghai has 116,000 such wealthy people.
The report showed that average age of the millionaires was 39, and those people fell into four categories: businessmen, those with high-profile jobs such as celebrities, those who earned money from housing trades and professional stock investors.
Annette Nijs , currently Executive Director Global Initiative of China's leading business school CEIBS, has joined the China Speakers Bureau. Through her career in politics, as a Dutch cabinet minister, and in business at Shell, Ms Nijs has developed an extensive network that supports her current position. For the China Europe International Business School she currently is involved in all global initiatives of the school, since October 2008.
About the initiative:
The Initiative fosters new corporate, government and academic relations in Europe, US and Latin America and expands the relations with current partners in China to other regions in the world. The Initiative aims to spread CEIBS Knowledge in top business media and at top corporate events outside China. Ms Nijs will also invite Western business leaders to the CEIBS partnership programme as well as to the Shanghai campus to attend executive education programmes and to speak at CEIBS’ annual forums. Furthermore, the Initiative will also facilitate an international recruitment drive for MBA scholarships, internships and job opportunities. Ms. Nijs’ work is also expected to benefit CEIBS’ international alumni.
Thanks to her extensive network Ms. Nijs is able to give both tailor-made speeches on specific industries in China and, with her back ground in macro-economics, put China's development also in a broader perspective.
In April we see at the China Speakers Bureau , compared to our March listing, a remarkable set of newcomers in the top-10 of most sought speakers for the month, although some have been there in previous months. Only the first four are maintaining a top position, but we do have a set of new names,
Highest newcomer in April at number 5 is Sam Flemming , one of our outspoken analysts on how the internet is changing China (and perhaps the other way around). Sam Flemming will participate in our next Global China Chat, this time about the Internet Word of Mouth (IWOM), in the week after the upcoming May holidays.
Second newcomer is professor Zhang Jun of Fudan University (who will join a conference panel with Paul Krugman in May in Seoul), who proves that beating the drum in the mainstream media still makes sense.
Professor Zhang Jun was quoted in the past month in almost every thinkable publication, as he advised the Shanghai theater group who will use Karl Marx's Das Kapital as a way to explain the financial crisis to a larger audience.
Additionally Roy Graff, who helped to organize our Global China Chat on tourism,Paul French and Janet Carmosky entered the top-10.
The Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG), the largest operator in the Shanghai container port, has postponed a 45 million euro investment in the Belgium port of Zeebrugge. The talks about of 40 percent participation are off for the time being, writes Reuters here. Reuters:
Shanghai port, China's biggest port operator, signed a framework agreement in September 2006 to buy 40 percent of a container terminal in Zeebrugge, which was built by APM Terminals, part of A.P. Moeller-Maersk.
"We have decided to put the project on hold as the outlook in global container traffic is very different from two years ago," Jiang Haitao, the company's board secretary, told Reuters.
But Belgium media, like here in the Dutch-language De Standaard, speculate about other reasons for what is now seen as a delay in the project, not a cancellation. They see it as an effort to get even on the Fortis dossier, or perhaps even put pressure on the Belgium government to pay back Ping An, the largest share-holder of the now Belgium-owned bank. As I wrote earlier this week in the case of the visit of the Dalai Lama to the Netherlands, China's central government would have no misgivings in using its investment politics to blackmail countries into what it perceives as the correct political direction. It seems doubtful that those political directives who go further than the few hot issues in China's politics. When it concerns economics or even international incidents with Chinese state-owned enterprises entering the global market, the central government seems to give very little concrete direction and leaves almost all in the hands of those companies.
What might have an indirect effect is that failures of Chinese state-owned companies in international ventures - and Fortis has certainly not been the only corporate disaster - do become very careful before they spend their capital in just another dead-end project.
A fast-acting government has organized a soft landing of its economy, says Shaun Rein of the research firm CMR in Shanghai in an overview of the country's stimulus package for Seeking Alpha. Consumer confidence remain strong and did not need much attention, he says, but a combination of other measures has certainly helped to mitigate the effects.
We need to give credit to the Chinese government -- they have moved incredibly fast to implement policies to ensure a soft landing in China. Even adding the number of graduate student positions in universities has helped keep too many of China's 6 million university graduates from entering a terrible job market. According to our research, 80% of Chinese have expressed confidence that the Government will implement the right policies to right the Chinese economy.
But there is more to be done, Rein says too:
What the Chinese government needs to do more of is make it easier for small, 3-15 person shops to get loans and start companies. 60% of job creation in the US in the last few decades has been in companies with fewer than 50 employees. It is still way too bureaucratic for small business owners. I am also worried about over investment in certain sectors -- it is filling up those huge real estate developments in the middle of nowhere with small businesses that will be key for making sure we don't have worthless infrastructure projects.
Whatever you write about human rights in China is irrelevant, if you want to make everybody happy. The outside world seems all to eager to castigate China for its human rights record, by focusing on all those things that go wrong. China's spin masters in Beijing rather focus on all the things that go well and end up being upset about anything that goes a bit deeper than the superficial messages it dispatches for the outside world.
Nevertheless, 2009 is going to be an interesting year and not only because - as here summarized by the Financial Times - China's central government is trying to preempt renewed international criticism on its human rights record. This is really a time for forces inside the country to push their human rights agenda and the failure of the outside world to realize that China's progressive forces are under attack is only too sad.
Let's limit us to two of the main center pieces of international criticism, the death penalty and extra legal arrests, and what has happened over the past few years.
Not so long ago the forces against the death penalty in China were a winning force, a major achievement in a country where a majority of the citizens and the establishment firmly believe in the death penalty as a way to maintain order. Because the capital punishment was not a matter of the central government, but of provincial and local governments, punishment varied greatly depending on who was trying you where. Some white collar crimes were dealt with through fines, while in other parts of the country it could mean the death penalty. By taking back that power to the level of the Supreme People's Court in Beijing, who actually has set up major new chambers to deal with the heavy case load, the capital punishment in China was heading for a watershed. For a few years the number of death penalties actually dropped, until 2008 when the number went up again.
That was a very worrying sign, since it meant that the forces fighting for a more human rights system in China were losing. Security concerns triggered off by incidents in different parts of the country might explain that backlash, but it must have been a major setback for the forces working against the death penalty.
The same goes for the extra legal powers of the security forces. Over the past decades those powers have been limited to a large degree. At the beginning of the 1990s arbitrary forces that could incarcerate people who lived together unmarried, had concubines or were homosexuals lost their power over the populace in a few years time. What remaining up to now were the extra legal detention camps. Despite fierce pressure from the central government, the security forces could never be forced to abolish their last extra legal stronghold. That created many international conviction of the central government when its human rights record would come under scrutiny.
Up to a few years ago, those extra legal camps seemed to be on the way out, just like all those other extra legal powers China's security forces had in the past. In the past year the issue seemed to have moved off the agenda.
Of course, China had major issues last year that would justify its attention for the earthquake in Sichuan, food scandals, the Olympic Games in Beijing and the upcoming economic problems.
What worries me even more is that very few outside observers have ever acknowledged the positive tendencies in China's human rights record, let alone jumped to the rescue when those aspirations went flat over the past year. What China needs is not just outside criticism, although that might help every now and then, but more understanding of how its forces internally work for a better society.
Sorry, just had to get that off my chest.
What better moment to reflect on the conundrum the Netherlands has organized itself by inviting Tibet's spiritual leader the Dalai Lama for a visit to the Netherlands than the relative quietness at Easter? The upcoming incident has been developing for a while, but will reach a boiling point in the coming month. The invitation for the Dalai Lama has been issued by the Dutch Parliament, but also government leaders like its minister of foreign affairs Maxime Verhagen is very eager to meet his holiness early June. Beijing's spin doctors have already warned that the Netherlands likely end up at its penalty bench for three till six months, if government leaders like the Dutch prime minister Balkenende will also meet the Dalai Lama.
Other countries have received the Dalai Lama, and dealt with China's anger, others like South Africa refused a visa to avoid political complications.
Beijing's tone has been already rather subdue, as it sees that stopping the visit on the request of Dutch parliament will not be possible, but it is rather trying to limit the political effect by trying to avoid meetings with the Dutch foreign minister and its prime minister. By indicating he is eager to meet the Dalai Lama the Dutch foreign minister has created himself a dilemma that will make him lose face, or possible millions in Chinese orders.
The incident brings back found memories of the so-called submarine crisis in the 1980s and spilling over into the beginning of the 1990s, as struggling RDM from Rotterdam tried to sell its submarines to Taiwan, another nono in China's international politics. In exchange for this order, for a company that went under anyway, many other Dutch companies suffered a political backlash. When I started to get involved as a journalist in China when the affair was just over - one of the reasons I got an accreditation as a journalist could well have been the new improved relations between the two countries - only mentioning the word "submarine" was enough to get Dutch and Chinese diplomats, and companies, into a bad mood. The current mayor of The Hague, Van Aartsen, was at the time minister of foreign affairs for the Netherlands and might want to use the opportunity to look back at this incident.
When Maxime Verhagen decides to upset China's central government, Dutch companies will suffer again, although on a different level compared to the 1980s and 1990s, as many companies tried in those days to enter the China market and relied on government permissions to do so. Those permissions were frozen for such a long time. For those companies now working in China, the backlash will be limited, although vast expansion plans might be put on hold. Who is going to suffer are the companies who hope to get a piece of the action as China's central government is on an international shopping spree to spend its billions of US dollars in foreign reserves. When the Netherlands will be put on a penalty bench for half a year, many interesting opportunities will be lost, opportunities that would be welcome at a time when the effects of the global crisis take hold of Europe.
I'm glad I'm not in the shoes of the Dutch minister of foreign affairs.
The current global economic crisis not only has losers, it has also clear winners, says economic analyst Arthur Kroeber today in the Global and Mail. China's stimulus packages might help you greatly if you are in the right industry, where China wants to boosts its investments. The Globe and Mail:
What is very clear is the stimulus package is going to raise investment spending in China significantly,” said economist Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, a research and advisory firm in Beijing. Though he cautioned that opportunities are limited to specific niches and raw materials, Japan's export numbers this year reveal the impact Chinese demand can have on a country's sagging fortunes.
“If you look for example at the curve of Japanese exports to China as compared to Japanese exports everywhere else, they're heading in completely opposite directions. Exports to China are going up and exports to everywhere else are going down,” Mr. Kroeber said.
Commercial Arthur Kroeber is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . If you want him at your conference or meeting to explain how to win in the global economic crisis, do get in touch.
Media have been fascinated by Chinese investors touring American real estate to buy, but the impacts might just not be as big as huge as expected, warn Rupert Hoogewerf , the expert on wealthy Chinese, in Business Week. While US real estate might offer genuine bargains, legal restriction will stop most of the rich Chinese to actually invest in it.
Hoogewerf estimates China is home to more than 50,000 people with a net worth of over US$10 million, and more than 800,000 with a net worth of US$1 million. But Chinese law restricts individuals from taking more than US$50,000 out of the country in one year.
According to Hoogewerf, the restrictions mean buyers are predominantly traders, or those with businesses that export overseas. These people have stockpiles of US dollars and the savvy to navigate real estate overseas.
China boast about its US$ 588 billion stimulus package at the G20, but assistant professor Victor Shih has very serious misgivings about the effects of the package, he writes in the Wall Street Journal . It might create positive headline numbers but has no effect on employment and private consumption.
More than three-quarters of the stimulus package will be spent on construction, including transportation infrastructure, earthquake reconstruction, welfare housing and rural infrastructure. Much of the money spent on earthquake reconstruction may prove productive, assuming local officials don't allocate the money to pet projects. After more than a decade of intensive infrastructure building elsewhere in China, however, it is dubious that additional construction on such a massive scale can generate economic returns beyond boosting short-term employment for a few months.
Most of the capital is not coming from the central government, Shih warns, but from Chinese banks and an additional US$ 3 trillion in local projects might have serious problems in getting funding to start with. Local government might just not be interested in handing out land for almost no compensation. Shih: "Local governments do not want to "waste" this land on public projects, especially when the central government has set a strict limit on the amount of farmland that can be developed."
The stimulus is thus legless: It looks impressive at the top, full of grandiose plans and ample financing from state banks, but lacks a solid foundation. The epic scale of central expenditure and state bank lending will generate some positive investment and GDP figures. Its impact at the grassroots level, however, is dubious. Beyond the short-term boost in employment and relatively small sums spent on social welfare and health, ordinary Chinese will see few benefits, limiting their capacity to spend in the midst of the global demand slump.
Commercial Victor Shih is a speakers at the China Speakers Bureau . If you are interested in having him at your conference, do let us know.
On April 2 the China Speakers Bureau will host a chat with tourism guru Roy Graff on tourism and China, who will join us from London. We will address both the impacts of Chinese tourists on the international tourism industry and the domestic tourism industry.
This first chat is already held and our second session is targeting participants in the Americas and Europe. We will start the interface half an hour before the chat starts, to allow participants to take their seats and get some initial information. The Global China Chat (part one) will have the following starting times:
London 4 PM
Brussels 5 PM
New York 11 AM
San Francisco 8 AM
On April 2 the China Speakers Bureau will host a chat with tourism guru Roy Graff on tourism and China, who will join us from London. We will address both the impacts of Chinese tourists on the international tourism industry and the domestic tourism industry.
This first chat is targeting for participants in Asia and Europe; a second similar chat will focus on the office hours in the Americas and the interface will be up here, after the first chat has ended. We will start the interface half an hour before the chat starts, to allow participants to take their seats and get some initial information. The Global China Chat (part one) will have the following starting time
10 AM London (corrected for summer time)
11 AM Brussels
5 PM Singapore (corrected)
5 PM Beijing Time
6 PM Tokyo
Zhu Shen, a recent addition to the China Speakers Bureau, a leading voice on China's life sciences, but also a prolific speakers on US-China business, will be visiting China for the best part of April. She has already booked speeches on successful global networking and how to use PR and media for your business.
If you are interested in this new speaker of the China Speakers Bureau, get in touch soon.
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