China Herald: 03/01/2011

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Red Capitalism - review

Flag of the Communist Party via Wikipedia

Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, a recent book by Carl E. Walter and Fraser T. Howie is a must-read book for current foreign correspondents in China and anybody who wants to dive a bit deeper into China's recent economic history than most headlines allow.
The book not only offers a thorough overview of China's achievements in setting up a banking system from scratch, after it opened up for economic reform after 1978. That description is a balanced admiration of what has been done in those years, and a very critical analysis of the financial mess the country is in now. Not surprisingly, the authors have listened very carefully to the views of Victor Shih, who has done basic research in China's outstanding debts, and with Shih they confirm that the current financial foundations are very weak and its banks are still extensions of the party-system who cannot survive in other economies where they are not backed by the state. The Enron-scandal looks pale compared to the financial minefield, China is looking at.
"If market valuations for Chinese banks are real and the banks are in such a great shape, why hasn't China's banking model been exported? As US and European regulators and governments look for a way to prevent the next financial crisis, why is China's model - with its asset-management companies, outright state ownership and central bank lending - not invoked?", the authors ask at page 77. Asking the question is answering it.
What I really appreciate about the book is the way they frame China's governing elite. I'm sure that many Chinese financial officials and experts know how their system works, but you need relative outsiders to come with a sharp analysis like this, in a paragraph where they describe China's rulers as a family business:

What is remarkable about the financial reforms pursued by Zhu Rongji was that they were comprehensive, transformational, and pursued consistently. Failure to follow through may have been inevitable, however, given the fragmented structure of the country's political system in which special-interest groups co-exist within a dominant political entity, the Communist Party of China. What moves this structure is not a market economy and its laws of supply and demand, but a carefully balanced social mechanism built around the particular interests of the revolutionary families who constitute the political elite. China is a family-run business. When ruling groups change, there will be an inevitable change in the balance of interests; but these families have one shared interest above all others: the stability of the system. Social stability allows their pursuit of special interests. This is what is meant by calls for a 'Harmonious Society'.

As you might realize, I subscribe to that analysis. And it goes beyond the financial system, that is by accident the subject of this book.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Who buys the luxury goods in China? - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

The luxury goods market in China is growing fast, says Shaun Rein in CNBC, but retailers often focus on the wrong kind of customers. The rich grab a visa and shop in Milan and Hong Kong. Aspiring young buyers still want their Gucci bags, but have to buy it at home.
China might take over Japan soon as the major luxury market, as it grows annually 20 to USD 13 billion in 2010, but the rich Chinese buy outside the country, warns Shaun Rein:

One, there’s more prestige in buying a Bulgari bag in Milan than in Beijing. Two, prices are also 30 percent cheaper abroad because of taxes and tariffs. Even billionaires don't want to waste money.
Only 40 percent of the $13 billion worth of luxury items sold to the Chinese last year were transacted in the country. That explains why Chinese tourists in France are now the highest per capita spenders there.

So, who can the luxury brands sell to?

The aspiring class – often younger people under the age of 30 who cannot afford to travel abroad and who still live at home rent-free, or those who live in second and third tier cities where it is hard to get visas to go abroad.

It is common for 25-year-old secretaries making $600 a month to save two months’ salary to buy $2,000 Gucci bags or drop $200 on a La Mer facial cream. Wealthy mining tycoons in fourth tier towns often cannot get visas, so they buy in China.
Many luxury brands are likely to fail in China as they only stock products that the elite buy when they should also be offering entry-level products for the younger, aspiring class.

More in CNCB.

Shaun Rein is speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Trade under threat of Fukushima fallout - Shaun Rein

2007 Toyota Tundra photographed in USA. Catego...

Toyota SUV in trouble via Wikipedia

The effects on trade between Japan and China cause by the Fukushima nuclear disaster is bigger than expected, warns Shaun Rein at CNBC, as Chinese consumers not only stop buying Japanese food, but Japanese products like Toyota's SUV cannot reach the Chinese market.
Rein is bullish on the home decoration market, where he expects this year a growth of 15 percent, as Chinese home owners turn to renovation as the sales of residential real estate slows down. Unfortunately, the foreign retailers like B&Q, Home Depot, but surprisingly also IKEA fail to capture that momentum.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Why foreign DIY stores fail in China - Shaun Rein

Not popular in China via Wikipedia

Foreign DIY-stores like B&Q, Home Depot and Saint-Gobain are retreating from China despite the booming economy, and nobody should be surprised, tells Shaun Rein in The Age. DIY does not fit the image people want to have.
The Age:

"Do-it-yourself is not popular in China," Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group...
"The feeling in China is that if you do it yourself that means you are a peasant -- not the sturdy, manly image DIY chains have crafted in the US."...Rein said that on some of the few DIY items that do sell in China, both B&Q and Home Depot priced themselves out of the local market by charging much more than Chinese competitors.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to learn more on how foreign businesses fail in China - or can win - do ask him for your meeting or conference, and give us a call.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

'The Chinese Dream' to be published in China - Helen Wang

Helen Wang by Fantake via Flickr

Our celebrity author Helen Wang just announced that her book The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You will be translated into Chinese and published in August.

Helen Wang "has sold Chinese translation rights to Shanghai Wenhui Publishing House, and will be available in China in August. I am really looking forward to it!
In celebrating this good news, my heart also goes out to all the victims of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan. All the royalties of The Chinese Dreambook sales in March will be donated to Red Cross Japan Earth Quake and Pacific Tsunami Fund."
Getting a book, aimed at a US audience, published in China too is a remarkable achievement, given the huge differences in background of both audiences.

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau; do you need her at your meeting or conferen? Do get in touch.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Chinnovation: just ordered a copy

Image representing Yinglan Tan as depicted in ...

Tan Yinglan via CrunchBase

I just ran into this highly positive review of Tan Yinglan's book Chinnovation: How Chinese Innovators are Changing the World. It tells the world just how innovative the Chinese are.

As you might know, anything on the cross roads of China, entrepreneurs and innovation is right in my alley. (Like my review here). The author is a relative outside, a Chinese from Singapore and rather well-know in VC circles.

I have asked for a copy of the book, so, do not buy it yet. I will let you know what I think of it.

Discovering innovation within China (sriu.wordpress.com)

Military affairs advance - Most-sought speakers in March 2011

Wendell Minnick by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein regained the first position again from Kaiser Kuo in a very busy media month. Mostly we have no complaints on how our top-speakers perform, but this March shows we are in the top-season for business in China.
Fastest rising star this month is our prominent defense speaker Wendell Minnick,, the Asia bureau chief of Defense news. Initially, and not surprising, the China Speakers Bureau focused on China's economic development and business affairs.
But China as a military force is getting more attention, so we were happy to include Wendell Minnick last year in our list of prominent speakers. And we can announce that his colleague Reuben F. Johnson, working amongst others for Jane's weekly and the Weekly Standard, has agreed to join us - although his profile is still under construction at this stage.
Two veteran speakers returned to this month's top-10: Jasper Becker and Paul French. A few new books on Mao's famine have hit the shelves, so the author of the Hungry Ghosts, Jasper Becker, is getting quite some hits. And Paul French has been relatively quiet for at least a month, so we expect his new book to get out soon too.

Without further delay, here is our list of top-10 most-sought speakers for March (February in brackets)

Victor Shih (no. 10)

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

China: less of a miracle - Victor Shih

Victor Shih by Fantake via Flickr

China's three trillion US dollar of foreign reserves and other assets might look impressive, but when you withdraw the country's debts and other liabilities, it looks no longer that special, tells Victor Shih at the US-China Institute. Local companies and governments hold those debts.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.

Can China deliver on its five-year plan? - Helen Wang

Helen Wang

Increased domestic consumption and sustainable growth are key in the country's new five-year plan. But can it deliver on two critical issues, beating inflation and affordable housing, author Helen Wang wonders in Forbes and on her weblog.

Reigning in inflation and providing affordable housing are important steps to foster a growing middle class. A major hindrance to increased Chinese consumption, however, is the country’s high saving rate, which reflects the underlying insecurity the Chinese feel about their future.
In writing my book The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World’s Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You, I interviewed over 100 people in China. They are from all walks of life and are the new members of the Chinese middle class. The biggest concern they have is social security. Most people I talked to save 25-50 percent of their incomes for a rainy day, as I wrote here.
Victor Ku, a hotel manager in Guangzhou, told me that he had to save two-thirds of his income. “I have to pay for my own health expenses,” he said. “In China, we don’t have security. If you get sick, you can immediately become poor.”

Can the government deliver? Helen Wang: "Most likely. Judging from its past performance, I would not underestimate the Chinese government’s ability to deliver. Will China become a more open society? Sooner or later, when the Chinese government sees it is in its own interest to let go of control."

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Value creation in US-China relationship - Janet Carmosky

Janet Carmosky

What can women contribute in the debate on leadership and value creation in the US-China relationship, Janet Carmosky, CEO of the China Business Network, asks herself in her key-note address. "We know a lot about tenacity. To challenge and to protect equally."

Janet Carmosky is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Thursday: Make competition irrelevant - Zunaira Munir

Zunaira Munir by Fantake via Flickr

Zunaira Munir will be holding a free webinar this Thurday (1PM EDT) Do Not Beat the Competition—Make it Irrelevant to Succeed in Business.

Break free from the competitive landscape by creating your market place that makes your competition irrelevant to your success. In this webinar, you’ll learn how to:

Recognize the limitations of your existing approaches to growth and profitability
Generate untapped demand and create uncontested new markets
Eliminate redundant costs from your system while creating new value for your stakeholders
Identify noncustomers and convert them into customers
Innovate while minimizing risks and maximizing opportunities

You can register here.
Zunaira Munir is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Thursday book talk in Chengdu - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

The Chengdu Bookworm, part of the famous chain of book stores, will host a book talk by Bill Dodson on his book China Inside Out on Thursday 24 March at 7.30PM, he announces on his weblog.

I’ve been invited to the Chengdu Bookworm to discuss my book China Inside Out this week Thursday, March 24, at 7:30pm. The Bookworm’s Literary Festival is winding down this week, with appearances by Jonathan Watts, author of When a Billion Chinese Jump, and Peter Hessler, author of Country Roads. I’m pulling up the rear.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

China's unruly workforce - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Common complaints? “Overly confident”, “spoilt”, “mercenary”, “and disloyal” employees. Shaun Rein looks in CNBC at one of the largest problems for foreign companies in China: the lack of a loyal labor force.

"Mama Mia," the GM of an Italian company lamented to me over lunch in Shanghai, "The corruption I can deal with, but human resource issues are driving me insane. Workers are too short-term focused – 50 percent leave within two months no matter how much money and training we give."

Every year the shortage of workers increases and getting enough labor is the nightmare of many employers. Shaun Rein:

An entire generation of younger employees constantly leaves jobs when the going gets tough or when they are dangled a minor salary increase. It is not uncommon for younger workers to have 5 jobs in 5 years. The result for the country is far too many over-confident, under-trained and spoilt 20-somethings.

What happens if these young workers never fulfill their increasingly unrealistic ambitions? What happens to China if it never gets properly trained managers in place? These are serious issues China’s society as a whole needs to address...

If the situation is not fixed, perhaps that Italian GM will join a growing list of companies shifting investment out of China to sunnier investment climates.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Friday, March 18, 2011

No salt for my French fries - Bill Dodson

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Bill Dodson

Salt hysteria has hit the East coast of China and Bill Dodson reports in his weblog from Shanghai on the difficulties of getting salt for his French fries.

My wife later that evening told me over dinner how our ayi had bought a kilogram of salt. “It was so expensive,” she told me, “a single small bag can now cost 15 rmb.” Bags used to cost a couple yuan. She explained to me the near-hysteria with which Chinese consumers were buying up salt in fear of atomic radiation blowing in from Japan should a reactor explode at the Fukushima nuclear plant. The iodine in salt, so Chinese wisdom holds, will protect consumers from radiation poisoning. She told me, “I said to the ayi, ‘What are you going to do, eat handfuls of salt?” She said the ayi had no response.
The government has remained mum on the subject, perhaps theorizing that because there is no solution should there actually be contamination, that at least salt is cauterizing pedestrian anxieties. Salt producers must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Why China is not collapsing - Shaun Rein

Image by Fantake via Flickr

The main difference between Tunesia, Egypt, Libya on one hand and China? Most Chinese support their government, argues Shaun Rein in CNBC in response to those who predict China might be the next on the block of governments under siege. Shaun Rein:

Sure, the system has shortcomings and continued reforms are necessary – corruption in particular is a significant problem area. But any unrest is more akin to the protests in Wisconsin than those in Tripoli.

People are far more likely to blame local governments than the central government. Many levels of society, from the military to the middle class to even the rising lower class, benefit from the status quo – no one wants a return to the chaos of the pre-opening up era.

China is not a one-family government, but a tidbit more complicated than many foreign observers think, and on a much more solid foundation, Rein argues in CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Is Baidu doing the right thing on intellectual property rights?

Image representing Baidu as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

A class action by 40 Chinese writers against China's leading search engine Baidu for infringement of their copyright attracted my attention for a whole set of reasons. Here is the AFP-report about the issue.

First, Baidu has for ages been accused of not minding any intellectual property rights and gaining in that way an unfair advantage on competitors, especially competitors like Google, who claims they stick to international practices to protect IPR. They were recently even put on a blacklist by the US government.

Second, - and you should see the next two also as disclosures - Baidu's quoted spokesperson Kaiser Kuo is also a speaker at my China Speakers Bureau, so it would be interesting to see his position, in an issue where he has been writing about as journalist an commentator in the past.

Third, I'm currently finishing a book on the Hypergrid Business, virtual worlds and their meaning for businesses, and my co-author Maria Korovov has just been writing some smart stuff on what online companies should do to avoid liability in this field. Not surprisingly, intellectual property rights is a key issue for companies going online.

From AFP:

More than 40 writers, including controversial blogger Han Han, have signed a letter claiming Baidu provided their works for free to download on its online library Baidu Wenku without their permission.

"Baidu has become a totally corrupt thief company," the authors said in the letter posted Tuesday on the website of government-linked China Written Works Copyright Society.

"It stole our works, our rights, our property and has turned Baidu Wenku into a marketplace of stolen goods," it said.

What is Kaiser's answer, again according to AFP?

Baidu spokesman Kaiser Kuo said the search engine "attaches great importance to intellectual property rights protection" and had deleted "tens of thousands of infringing items" uploaded by web users.

"We promised that authors or copyright holders can report problematic content found on Baidu Library to the complaint centre ... and we will delete infringing content within 48 hours," Kuo said in a statement Wednesday.

In a disclaimer on its website, Baidu said users who uploaded the files must take on all liabilities and be responsible for compensation in any copyright disputes.

The writers say this is nonsense, and they claim Baidu should take responsibility. They want Baidu to ask permission for publication in advance. But when we read Maria Korolov's recent piece on how to deal with intellectual property rights, we see Baidu is on the right side (apologies for the hypergrid jargon):

But larger grids, such as OSGrid, InWorldz, and SpotOn3D have the same problem as Facebook — though not necessarily on the same scale. Yet.

As a result, they have copyright policies in place and have posted contact information for copyright infringement complaints.

What happens if a grid posts a policy — and then ignores all takedown requests? By not following its own policy, the grid will lose its status as a “safe haven” and can become subject to lawsuits.

InWorldz, one of the most popular commercial OpenSim grids, has filed a designated agent form with the U.S. Copyright Office, a PDF which you can see here. It names Beth Reischl as the designated agent, and the contact email for DMCA complaints is dmca-support@inworldz.com. InWorldz was the first OpenSim grid to officially register in this way — a sign of its commitment to copyright protection. As a result of this and other measures, it became a popular destination for virtual goods merchants and has grown quickly over the past few months.

Another commercial grid, SpotOn3D, has also filed its designated agent form. The grid is owned by PowerSynch LLC, and its designated agent is Stevan Lieberman, one of the founders of the grid. The contact email address is questions@aplegal.com.

Many grids haven’t filed a designated agent form, but do have policies posted on their websites.

The OSGrid has a nice page up for DMCA violations, which you can see here. OSGrid has an email address set aside for these complaints, dmca@osgrid.org. Ansky Grid has a similar DMCA policy in place, and complaints should go to dmca@AnSky.ca.

In short: you cannot blame online publishers like Baidu for all infringements of intellectual property, but they should have procedures in place and act fast if they get complaints. That is the line in the US, and seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe others can chip in on the Chinese legal system, but Baidu seems to stick to international accepted procedures.
(Earlier published at the Fons Tuinstra's home.)

Japanese Publishers want Baidu to remove Pirated Manga (penn-olson.com)
Chinese writers call Baidu a "marketplace of stolen goods" (thenextweb.com)
US says China's Baidu, Taobao markets for piracy (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Baidu put on US pirate-goods list (bbc.co.uk)
Chinese Internet giants identified as 'notorious markets' for piracy (thenextweb.com)

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Is the Chinese dream also the American dream? - Helen Wang

Helen Wang by Fantake via Flickr

Helen Wang, author of The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You, will address on April 4 the INSEAD Alumni Association of Northern Californa in Palo Alto about the challenges and opportunities of a rising Chinese middle class. More details here.
“The Chinese Dream tells one of the most important stories of our time,” says Ken Wilcox, CEO of Silicon Valley Bank. “Helen Wang enlightens us with the possibility of ‘unity in diversity’. A comprehensive, and yet easy to read book about modern China.”

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. She will be visiting China in June and August and is available for speaking opportunities. When you need her at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Is Japan getting ready for change? - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

The current crisis in Japan could lead to a change in Sino-Japanese relationships, Shaun Rein tells CNBC. Japan could actually have a chance to trigger off long-overdue economic change and prepare for competition with China.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Hong Kong still not has to fear Shanghai - Shaun Rein

Sai Yeung Choi Street South, Mongkok, Hong Kong

Hong Kong via Wikipedia

Since Shanghai emerged as a financial stronghold at the mainland, Hong Kong has been living in fear its would be outpaced by its northern competitor. Shaun Rein explains in the Financial Times' weblog why Shanghai, after decades of development, is still not a real threat for Hong Kong;

First, Shanghai’s talent pool is weak. Although Shanghai middle school studentsgenerally outperform Hong Kongers and Americans on standardised tests, the reality is that Shanghai’s education system does not adequately prepare its studentsfor a globalised world.

They focus too much on rote memory and not enough on training students to think analytically. The biggest obstacle for growth – according to several dozen senior finance executives we’ve spoken to – is not government regulation or corruption but the lack of qualified talent. Turnover often tops 30 per cent a year as loyalty is in short supply.

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Even hiring secretaries is tough as anyone who can do PowerPoint or write an email in English wants to be an analyst. Hong Kong’s relatively strong university system prepares a larger group of students qualified for low and middle management financial sector positions.

For two other reasons, China's too high personal income tax and the rising costs for expats to live in Shanghai, read on here.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Prices of a VPN-service

Hillary Clinton speaking at a rally in support...

Hillary Clinton via Wikipedia

Mostly I hate to give free business advice, but as it comes to VPN-services - Hillary Clinton will agree - there is more at stake than the money you can make with it. VPN-services, for the people who wonder what that might be, are online channels who help you in China to circumvent the internet censorship.

There are a load of free VPN services around, like you can see a selection here, but when you really depend on your online communication, it makes sense to pay a few bucks so you do not have to bother about whatever China's censors might think is offlimits.

In the past I worked with Witopia, and they did an excellent job. Last December I switched to 12vpn, for a simple reason: they were cheaper and the reviews of this relative new service were excellent. I then paid US§ 35 for a one year. That was only a difference of less than US§ 5, but as everybody who spent some time in China: you are not even going to spend one cent on something called loyalty. Loyalty schemes are invented by overpaid MBA's (I know them), who have to justify their salaries. They do not add any real value.

12VPN did a really good job, and I was happy to transfer it to a good friend when I left Shanghai in January.

Just now I got a tweet (h/t @kinablog) telling me that 12vpn had increased their fee to US§ 129. The business reason behind it I do not know, but I guessed they must have hired recently an MBA. Nobody who can get Witopia for US§ 39.99 is going to take them serious.

The problem of this pricing strategy is of course that the average internet user in China cannot afford even Witopia. If Hillary Clinton is going to offer this open channel for free (long time ago before 9/11 the CIA offered actually such a service) the whole industry will be flat out. But otherwise, what do you think of this idea? You would have to look into the political and technical ramifications if you going to offer an affordable VPN-service to all 450 million, it should be down to US§ 2, and perhaps you have to organize localized distribution systems for students who can earn an additional buck for their effort. That would be fun.

For a long time Chinese internet users were not really interesting in those VPN-services, since they were pretty happy with the censored edition of the internet they could get. I see some signals showing that the need for a cheap VPN-service might be growing, so you might not have a customer base of 450 million, but with a couple of millions it would also be feasible.

What do you think?
(Earlier published at www.fonstuinstra.net)

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Book launch "Inside out", Saturday in Suzhou - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson, signing his book

While already going strong, the global launch of Bill Dodson's new book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World will take place this Saturday in Suzhou, he announces at his weblog:

The Suzhou Launch will be this coming Saturday, March 12, 2011, at the Bookworm in Suzhou, just off Shiquan Jie. The book talk will last about an hour, starting at 4pm; after which will be a launch party with free flow wine and beer (but just for another hour or so).
I’ll be discussing the ramifications for China of the first couple pages of chapter 2 of the book, in which I describe how I unwittingly become caught up in a revolt of middle class protesters angry about the invasion of a property developer onto land to which they hold the deeds. Now, we’re not talking peasants, here; but bonafide, certified, Chinese professionals who find themselves pitted against the local government, unscrupulous property developers, construction managers with bad comb-overs and white-helmeted police in a local, Suzhou dispute that turns very ugly.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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