agriculture - California has a China problem - FEER

When China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) almost four years ago, Western media wrote that agricultural imports from the US would wipe Chinese agriculture away. More efficient production methods and better quality would be no match for the Chinese producers.
Now, the opposite is happening, argues this week's cover story in the Far Eastern Economic Review. (subscription needed)California has a China problem, as one of the experts puts it.
This new trend aligns very well with earlier stories that migrant workers would rather stay at home, because they could earn a better living on the country side than working in China's factories.

meetup - RSVP for Shanghai webloggers



Already three people signed up for the Shanghai Weblogger meetup for October 20! Seems that very little can stop the success of or get together. Brad of Living in China will be there. And maybe also Mao, although he has not updated his weblog in months. Maybe he needs some encouragement.
And when you are still looking for arguments to convince your colleague/partner/neighbor why you spend so much time behind the computer, point them at this article in Wired.com that explains how the internet (and the webloggers are part of that) changes the fundamentals of the economy and - for example - has doubled the size of the book market. Very good stuff indeed.

blogging - The IFLN gathers in Shanghai

Interested in logistics: then you can follow this weblog on Monday as I will do some life blogging from the Ramada hotel in Shanghai, where the IFLN inc, a worldwide logistics and forwarding network, will have their eight annual meeting.
Initially the hotel informed me they would have no wireless access, but my complaints have helped: it is not for free, but I can get online in the hotel.
A strong China-focus of course and more a way for me to test this new way of communicating. Most of the conference, on Tuesday and Wednesday will be one-on-one meetings, but I think I prefer to have them elsewhere.

The China job rollercoaster – the WTO column

(Soon at Chinabiz)

Shanghai - Should I go to the University of Newcastle in Australia for an MBA degree, a real estate agent from Beijing asked me this week.
When I would have gotten a euro for each job advice I have given over the past few years I might have been able to retire myself by now.

Just like in any other market in China shortages and oversupply might occur at the same time, depending on where and when you need to expand your labor force, although that is relatively new for the labor market. Less than one year ago the idea that parts of China’s booming manufacturing industry would suffer from a labor shortage seemed preposterous in a country with 1.3 billion inhabitants. Not anymore: a colleague just returned from Guangdong and reported that companies were wondering what how to explain to their clients back in Europe why their supply of teddy bears is lagging.
Their European clients would never believe it when they would tell there could not deliver because of a labor shortage, so “maybe we should tell them we had a fire”, management at one plant suggested. Small margins at those plants make raising the salaries hardly possible without causing a massive shake-out, one of the disadvantages of being competitive.

Rising income at home and increased costs in the cities have put reduced the number of migrant workers that decided go to the Pearl River delta with millions, while other parts of China do not seem to be under pressure yet. The central government is trying to increase income in agriculture and we might only see the beginning of a larger problem in human resources here.
Higher up in the food chain, there seemingly enough job seekers. About 30 percent of the college graduates have been unable to find a job, showing that the growing output of universities has not yet met sufficient demand. It explains the rather stunning number of people I meet who are greatly overqualified for the jobs they are doing. A lot of intellectual capital is being destroyed in this way. For a few years, these people might be a pool a fast expanding economy can tap into, then they would see their educational assets disappear.
The Chinese are voting with their feet. Intake of Chinese students at European universities dropped last year with an average of 40 percent, and they should be dropping in Australia too. Some ‘international’ MBA-students from Australia reported they have 50 percent Chinese fellow students, 40 percent Indian. “Why should I go then to Australia, if I only meet Chinese?” they wonder. Getting job experience, crucial for such an education seems even further away.

The gigantic foreign investments pledged in car manufacturing, the chemical industry and elsewhere suggest that even when China’s economy does not grow at the current pace, not only demand for migrant workers might not meet supply, but also that more the educated and experienced employees. Internal documents of some foreign companies suggest a hard struggle for staff. Business school and HR-service providers are already warning that lack of qualified managers for – say – ten years, but shortages seem to expand on every level.

It might be the beginning of a new game, where the myth of endless human resources in China will disappear.

Fons Tuinstra

meetup - Shanghai webloggers meeting



Are you familiar with the meetup.com organizing tool? In the US it is a big thing and I have registered myself earlier this year to see how it works. It became known last year when the supporters of former Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean started to use it, but I guess that by now also the Republicans have discovered it. Just now I got an invitation for a Shanghai webloggers meetup in two weeks time. I checked the website and saw that already 19 people have signed up for this group (although not yet for this meeting planned for O'Malley's).
I signed up for the meeting and might actually see a few of you there. I'm trying to find out who is blogging where, but most have not done a great job yet on their profiles. Mao is the only one who added his url.

blogging - A rather light holiday




Very little time to do some blogging these days. China seems to have come to a standstill, so does the news. After having been struggling with the German translation of my book I have to look for a cover pic. I like actually this one (made by Fritz Hoffmann) better than the one on the Dutch cover. The new title is going to be "The Wild East, 15 misunderstandings about China and the Chinese".
Time to enjoy the beautiful weather too, meet some friends and try to stay away from the internet. Anyway, with the whole country online, getting things done takes anyway forever.

media - Outspoken Beida media professor sidelined

Professor Jiao Guobiao of the journalism department of Beijing University saw most of his work removed after he critized the still powerful Central Propaganda Department. The China Digital News here summerizes an article in Yazhou Zhoukan, translated by ESWN.
Professor Jiao can no longer teach or advise master students. "There are still many hidden rules in Chinese society about what may or may not be said. I hope that I can shine the light on some of these things," Jiao says in the interview.
Rather useful is the critical introduction of the interview by ESWN, that put the professor in a rather less heroic light. "Politically, this article is weak in several spots. Jiao showed a blind admiration for the American political system, using it as the standard towards which everybody else ought to be moving," ESWN writes. And: "The arguments are also not well-rounded, and the author destroys himself with some unfortunate slips. The attack on the Deputy Head of the Central Propaganda Department focused on his provincial origin."