The changing media landscape – the WTO column

journalists up for horsemeat?
(soon also at
Chinabiz)
Macdonald’s learned it the hard way during Christmas and a month before
Nike discovered the force of the new media in China. Macdonald’s saw its website hacked, because it violated the ‘one China’ principle. Nike insulted, according to other unruly forces at the internet, China’s dignity, was forced to pull a commercial and even apologized – although I failed to understand how anybody could get upset about the whole commercial. Improved security might have helped Macdonald’s, but only in the short run.
What those incidents illustrate – whether you agree with the issue or not – is that companies are very slow to realize that a media revolution is taking place, even slower than my revered colleagues.
In some meetings I have been explaining them the way the new media work. I believe the change is as profound as when the first engine-driven cars entered societies that relied mainly on horsepower. It took a while but with very few exceptions those horses turned into horsemeat and that is exactly the danger that threatens us, journalists: we are about to become horsemeat.
Everybody can be a journalist now and our task is changing, if not disappearing. Mass media were needed because of the high costs of printing presses and broad casting stations. Now, because costs for disseminating news and information over the internet have been reduced to almost zero, the logic of the mass media is away and their once powerful positions can be eroded. The traditional daily paper in the morning and the news at eight o’clock are losing their position as the major information sources. Developing niche markets are replacing the mass market.
The speed of the erosion process of the traditional media depends on two factors: connectivity (like in South-Korea) and the absolute number of internet users (like in the USA). While much information floating around on the internet is not interesting for most people, to put it mildly, the chances that real alternatives for traditional media grow develop, as the experience in the US shows, when the volume increases and search techniques improve.
The atmosphere among the traditional media in the US is getting increasingly depressed, as prestigious magazines discuss how
to save journalism, or even play with doomsday scenarios that include the
demise of the New York Times. Media in Europe and Asia still enjoy in majority a blissful ignorance.
China will see a similar revolution in the coming few years, I predict, much faster than in much of Europe and the rest of Asia because relative connectivity and absolute numbers of Chinese internet users will be comparable to the situation in the US. With about 100 million internet users at the end of 2004, China’s media are not yet in the danger zone, as only in larger cities like Beijing and Shanghai about 50 percent of the households are connected. But the growth rate of the internet does not show any sign of slowing down. China has now as about
600,000 webloggers, less than one fifth of the number in the US.
Companies in the US are hitting the new trend,
writes Fortune this week, with
Microsoft surprisingly enough as the frontrunner, as it successfully countered an anti-big brother uproar among the webloggers. It was a revolution that took, after a slow start, two years to have a profound influence on politics and commerce. Dominating force are the over
five million weblogs. No disaster can hit the world, without
audiences increasingly turning to those new producers of information.
It is time for a wake up call for companies in China too. A media revolution is on its way.
Fons Tuinstra