The stagnating growth of the internet – the WTO column
(Later also at Chinabiz)
Brussels- One of the projects that keeps me busy at this stage is podcasting: making radio shows online. It is one of many new features that hit the internet at a lighting speed and are taking off also in China. The country enjoys already over 5,000 internet radio shows varying from boring economic analysis to bedroom secrets (yes, I can provide you the links if you are really interested).
China has gained enormously from entering cyberspace and has amazed the world in the first six, seven years of its development, both in numbers as in emerging features, despite tough government control. But those days seems to be over.
Traditionally the new figures on the internet in China – 103 million people online last month, half of whom broadband! – was celebrated by Chinese media as the next success story of relentless growth. Unfortunately, it is more proof of the reverse: unlike all the cheerful propaganda stories, the internet in China is stagnating for about two years when we look at the infrastructure and the numbers of new internet users. The internet doubled or tripled in the first years of its existence, but is now back to less than 10 percent growth per year. After getting the bigger cities online, the countryside proves harder to deal with.
Of course, there are enough business deals, merges and acquisitions to report about, but the fundamentals are not good. What help are new applications when the capacity is falling short? Talk to internet users from China who go online elsewhere in the world and they do a remarkable discovery: the internet can really be very fast. Because of structural shortages in capacity, connection speed in China might increasingly be called ‘broadband’ it offers in reality only dialup quality.
The amazing growth in internet users was of course very hard to manage, but unlike the governmental push that got the internet going in the 1990s, currently priorities have shifted away from the internet. In the 1990s the internet was seen as an indispensable tool for China’s economic development; now it has disappeared from the political agenda.
China could move ahead because there was very little to build on. In Europe expensive ISDN had covered much of the corporate market, when cheaper alternatives emerged. Telecom companies in Europe were less eager to expand into the internet compared to the Chinese.
But now the major Chinese cities have been wired, partly by cable, but mostly by ADSL, the initial advantage of having very little infrastructure is turning around. New internet applications ask for much more capacity of the already stretched infrastructure in China. Running full-blown media on the internet, like some of the major TV-stations want to do, is technically impossible since most users lack the connection speed. New applications rely more on peer-to-peer connectivity, where computers share and communicate directly with other computers, in stead of centralized hubs and server parks. Unfortunately, ADSL – China’s favorite technology - is less than useful for this new ways to alleviate shortages in capacity, since its upload speed is only a fraction of its download speed.
So, new applications are strained and because the internet is no longer pushed by the government as it was in the 1990s, capacity problems are bound to increase. The slow growth of new internet users might help a bit, but a new push is much overdue.
Fons Tuinstra