China Herald

Green Dam, the Party capitulates - Tom Doctoroff

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:56:00 +0000

Tom Doctoroff by Fantake via Flickr

Tom Doctoroff, North Asia Area Director of JWT advertising firm, describes in The Huffington Post the decision to at least delay the compulsory censorship software Green Dam on PC's shipped in China as an unique capitulation of the Communist Party. De decision was published at the official newswire Xinhua just hours before midnight, when the regulation would have been in force.
The central government had crossed a line by upsetting its closest supporters, Tom Doctoroff argues:

I have often argued that China, a Confucian society that cherishes order and stability as the prerequisite for individual and national advancement, does not crave bottom-up representative democracy. Furthermore, most Chinese have confidence in the ability of the central government - as opposed to local and provincial organs - to advance the interests of the majority. As the financial crisis sweeps across the globe, citizens are impressed with their leaders' far-sightedness. From aggressive stimulative policy to announced welfare reforms, most Chinese believe their country will emerge stronger than ever on the global stage once the tsunami recedes. In marked contrast to the Japanese, the Chinese people have faith in the wisdom of their rulers.

But that faith is not blind.

But it is also not the beginning of the end of the Party, Doctoroff says further.

China will become more "democratic" but not in an electoral sense, at least not within the next couple decades.

Societies do evolve. And China continues on its own journey to become a modern nation, with a government accountable for its behavior. But the contours of the Middle Kingdom's political structure will always assume the shape of its distinct worldview.

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Tom Doctoroff is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want him at your conference? Do let us know.

China travel market grows despite crisis - William Bao Bean

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:22:00 +0000

William Bao Bean by Fantake via Flickr

Despite dropping occupations rates in Beijing and later possibly Shanghai, China's travel market is still growing, despite the crisis, says William Bao Bean, partner at Softbank India and China Holdings, according to 4Hoteliers. He sees much future for online bookings.

One area that’s been identiﬁed by investors is China’s online travel booking. Despite China’s high online penetration rate, only about 10 percent of travel is booked online. But it has grown, and will continue to grow, said Softbank’s Bean. “Two years ago, online was less than ﬁve percent,” he said. “I think if you look a year or two down the road, you’ll see online going to 20 percent. And I think we’ll see, in maybe three or years, half of all travel booking happening online.”

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William Bao Bean is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want him at your conference, do get in touch.

Organizing CSR-mart 2009 - Rupert Hoogewerf

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 13:00:00 +0000

Rupert Hoogewerf by Getty Images via Daylife

Today the Hurun Report from Rupert Hoogewerf and Ammado organized the first CSR-mart in Shanghai, both organization announced in a press release. Hurun or Rupert Hoogewerf was one of the people giving an opening speech.

"The Wenchuan Earthquake has been a turning point for CSR in China," says Rupert Hoogewerf, CEO of Hurun Report. "Brands realise now the value of a good CSR programme, not because it is a nice thing to do, but because it is good for their business."

Senior decision makers from 56 companies, charities and social ventures participated in the event. During the day each participant was given up to twelve 20 minute meetings, giving them the opportunity to discuss partnership opportunities, share experiences and identify possible synergies. Participants included Baidu, Wal-mart, HSBC, Citibank, Tiffany, Clearworld Energy, WWF, Amity Foundation, Narada Foundation, Roots & Shoots, Surmang / Amara, FCA.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.

Chinese brands take off at home - Rupert Hoogewerf

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 08:37:00 +0000

Rupert Hoogewerf by Getty Images via Daylife

Soft drink Wanglaoji from Guangdong tops the fourth Hurun list of Most Valuable Brands with an estimated USD 540 million of value, writes CCTV on their website. List composer Rupert Hoogewerf, who expanded the list from 50 to 100 Chinese brands, sees that branding is taking off in China, competing with foreign brands on their own territory.

"Homegrown Chinese brands are beginning to take on a life of their own, despite their lack of international recognition," said Rupert Hoogewerf, CEO of Hurun Report. "It is becoming harder for international brands to make waves in China," he said.

Some industries are doing better than others on the list, writes CCTV:

Financial services, tobacco and alcohol are the most valuable industries for homegrown Chinese brands. China Mobile tops the brands list for the third year running with a brand value of $29.3 billion, followed by four financial service brands, ICBC, CCB, Bank of China and China Life.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want him at your conference, do get in touch.

Open letter to net nanny and CCTV - Jeremy Goldkorn

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 06:54:00 +0000

Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr

Annoyed by yet another effort to block parts of the internet - this time including Google - Beijing-based internet entrepreneur Jeremy Goldkorn wrote on his website Danwei to net nanny, name for the collective Chinese efforts to censor the internet, and the country's leading TV channel CCTV.
After spelling out what he likes about China:

You are making Chinese people look like children on the world stage.

You are bringing shame to the People's Republic of China, and the Chinese Communist Party.

Whoever made this decision, you have lost face for the Chinese people.

China's rich did not change life style - Rupert Hoogewerf

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:46:00 +0000

Rupert Hoogewerf

China has avoided most of the credit crunch and its rich has not dramatically changed their life style, says Rupert Hoogewerf, author of the Hurun report and tracking China's rich for over a decade in an interview. His research shows that life has remained the same for 82 percent of the people on his list.
Hoogewerf's profile of China's rich:

The average mainland Chinese millionaire is 39 years old. The average mainlander with $10 million is 43, and the average mainlander with $100 million is 49. This makes China's richest 10 to 15 years younger than their Western counterparts. They have a special affinity for international luxury brands, especially European brands. If a Chinese person has built a successful business, the first thing they reward themselves with is a luxury watch, then a luxury car; after that comes all the rest.

What does this mean for brands targeting China?

Luxury brands looking to break into the China market need to have a good partner. If you try coming in on your own in the retail industry, it is very hard to make things happen. You also need to be sure of your brand positioning and pricing; many brands arriving in China sell more expensively than back home.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your conference, do get in touch.

China: No longer a big story - Paul French

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:41:00 +0000

Paul French by Fantake via Flickr

Danwei's Jeremy Goldkorn sits down with the author Paul French to discuss his latest book on foreign correspondents in China, Through the Looking Glass: China's Foreign Journalists from Opium Wars to Mao. Why did he stop in 1950, is one of the obvious questions. Because China is not longer a big story, compared to those times, explains Paul French. "Trade conflicts are a bit different than the Opium Wars."

Danwei Interview with Paul French from danwei on Vimeo.

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Image by Fantake via Flickr

Both Paul French and Jeremy Goldkorn are speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having one of them - or both - at your conference, please get in touch.

Life is much more free now - Zhang Lijia

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 07:35:00 +0000

Celebrity author Zhang Lijia joined recently in Perth, Australia a BBC-show and explained how her life and change had changed. "Life is much freer now."

Celebrity author to visit United States - Zhang Lijia

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 08:47:00 +0000

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Celebrity author Zhang Lijia is mostly based in Beijing, but this year she has a busy travelling schedule. After a trip to Switzerland (June 23-July 13), she will be visiting also the Netherlands, Belgium and London (19-25 July). In September, October and November she will be staying in the US to participate in an international writing program at the University of Iowa, funded by the US department of state, for a small selection of very promising authors.
Recently she has been interviewed for a BBC documentary that will be available soon.
Zhang Lijia organized in May 1989 as a worker demonstration in her city Nanjing, taught herself English, studied in the UK and is now fast becoming an established author. Her book "Socialism Is Great!": A Worker's Memoir of the New China is currently being translated in a wide range of languages.
Her longer stay in the US makes it easier for her American fans and readers to meet with her. If you are interested in inviting her, do get in touch with the China Speakers Bureau.

Twitter helps - Marc van der Chijs

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:18:00 +0000

Marc van der Chijs by Fantake via Flickr

How should companies deal with new media like twitter? Twitter supremo Marc van der Chijs of the Spil Games in China taught Dutch airline KLM last month for free how to do that. The Dutch Daily Het Parool (here in a translations from the Dutch)used the incident to educate its corporate readers.

After Marc van der Chijs, for the Dutch game company Spil Games in China is, earlier this month his frustration on an infernal booking with airline KLM of twitterde away, something remarkable happened. KLM began Van der Chijs' twitter account to follow.

Remarkable still was that Van der Chijs suddenly the next KLM flight unsolicited been proved against economy to business class.''Coincidence? twitterde it then,''probably not.''He has been invited for an interview with a KLM representative.

The KLM was already experimenting with Twitter, but the exchange with Van der Chijs shows how they both created a win-win situation. Commercial Marc van der Chijs is a successful entrepreneur, based in Shanghai and a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you are interested in hearing his views at your conference, do get in touch.

Most-sought speakers for June 2009

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:16:00 +0000

Kaiser Kuo by Fantake via Flickr

How do I get into the picture? Every month after publishing our monthly top-10 most-sought speakers some of the few hundred who did not make it to the list wonder themselves what they can do to improve their ranking. There is only one advice we can give them: beat the drum. Make sure that people notice you. We as a speakers' bureau can help the process in getting assignments and dealing with them, but we can only support professional speakers, we cannot make them.
That does not always mean you need to get into the mainstream media, as our fastest climber of this week Warren Liu at the 7th position shows. He wrote a bestselling book on KFC in China and that in itself can push a career. But getting into the mainstream media helps, as our number one Shaun Rein shows. He started this month a commentary in Forbes, after having been a regular contributer to CNBC and Business Week. Kaiser Kuo just checked in from a World Economic Forum activity in Seoul this week, while Zhang Lijia is preparing her next month's trip to Europe to promote her book "Socialism is Great". Paul French published this

William Bao Bean by Fantake via Flickr

month his new book on foreign correspondents in China.
Sam Flemming just arrived in London for a set of public engagements and Arthur Kroeber had some great contribution in his weblog at the Financial Times. See, that really helps. Then, the list for June 2009 (between bracket the rank for May.). More links to our speakers in the media, you find in our speakers corner.

Shaun Rein (1)
Kaiser Kuo (5)
Zhang Lijia (2)
William Bao Bean (6)
Paul French (10)
Arthur Kroeber (4)
Warren Liu (-)
Victor Shih (3)
Sam Flemming (4)
Janet Carmosky (-)
Janet Carmosky by Fantake via Flickr

Why most M&A deals end up badly - Shaun Rein

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 07:56:00 +0000

Image via Wikipedia

Seventy percent of the M&A deals end up badly for the shareholders, research from his Shanghai company CMR group has shown, writes Shaun Rein today in Forbes.

Too often companies put together matches that look great on paper but are fraught with management and structural problems that end up turning them into busts. Sometimes, of course, acquisitions can be great. Clorox's purchase of Burt's Bees has been very beneficial, giving the buyer a strong new product line positioned outside of its traditional areas. But such experiences are the exception, not the rule.

Differences in cultures are often underestimate, Rein says, also when they come from the same countries, like the Bank of America's purchase of Merrill Lynch shows. But when the differences grow, so does potential trouble. Sometimes organic growth is better than acquisition, like in the case of Coca Cola and Huiyuan:

Coke obviously knows how to develop new products and market them effectively. It did so with the Chinese launch of Coke Zero. Rather than pursuing Huiyuan and wasting valuable time, Coke should have been aggressively expanding the presence of its Minute Maid brand. Instead it left the door open for PepsiCo's ( PEP - news - people ) Tropicana, which has come on strong in the last year. Pursuing a merger or acquisition too often wastes too many resources all allocated the wrong way. Companies lose time they will never recover.

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Shaun Rein is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his ins

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

ights, please let us know.

Marketing in the digital universe - Tom Doctoroff

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:55:00 +0000

Tom Doctoroff by Fantake via Flickr

Marketing guru Tom Doctoroff will give members and other visitors of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai a lively introduction into digital marketing and the way to reach China's youngsters. From the invitation:

Chinese youth are intoxicated by a new digital universe. However, their relationship with all things digital is dramatically different from their Western counterparts. Chinese youth maintain a more functional relationship with technologies like the web and their mobile phones while Western youth maintain a deep emotional engagement with the technologies they use. The shape of the Chinese digital universe reflects not only new outlets for "release" and "self-expression" but eternal Chinese cultural imperatives rooted in an individual's relationship with society and craving for acknowledgement.

AmCham Shanghai invites you to attend a lively, case study-filled presentation on the science of digital media featuring Tom Doctoroff, Area Director of North Asia and CEO of JWT Greater China, on June 24 at the Four Seasons Hotel. Doctoroff will discuss why only a few brands today have started to harness the emotional power of the digital universe, and will take you on a journey through the world of new media and uncover means of deepening bonds with young Chinese who are pulled between a polarized desire to "fit in" and "stand out."

You can RSVP for the meeting here.

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Tom Doctoroff is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your meeting or conference, do let us know.

Profit China's music industry stops at ringtones - William Bao Bean

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:13:00 +0000

William Bao Bean by Fantake via Flickr

The global music industry hopes to tap into the revenue streams in Asia, writes the Hollywood Reporter, But VC William Bao Bean does not give them a lot of hope to make a buck in China as the country has no tradition of paying for the usage of music products. The Hollywood Reporter:

While the Chinese music market appears to be vast, one speaker estimated that nearly 100% of online consumption is unlicensed. William Bao Bean, partner at the Softbank China & India fund, described a China market financially dominated by caller ringback tones -- the music clips that mobile subscribers use to entertain their callers before they pick up. That market, in turn, is dominated by China Mobile and a handful of wireless service providers, with very little revenue trickling back to music labels and artists, though 3G services and new competition from rival carriers could improve the outlook for service providers.

"Paid download and streaming models will die in China, if they haven't already done so," Bao Bean said, though he also pointed to the curiosity of an enduring physical disc market in China. That he explained by suggesting China's car-driving population is not yet used to plugging in MP3 players.

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William Bao Bean is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your event, do get in touch.

Zhang Lijia to visit Amsterdam

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:22:00 +0000

Zhang Lijia by Fantake via Flickr

The famous Chinese journalist and author Zhang Lijia will visit Belgium and the Netherlands (especially Amsterdam) for a short visit. Her groundbreaking book ""Socialism Is Great!": A Worker's Memoir of the New China has just appeared in Dutch. She will be in Amsterdam from 14 till 17 June July and if you are interested in meeting her, do get in touch with the Europe office of the China Speakers Bureau.

Nasty mistake in original message: it's July, not June.

Having fun with China's censorship

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:39:00 +0000

Firefox: no effect via Wikipedia

Even weeks before the much-debated compulsory censorship software Green Dam Youth Escort has to be applied on all PC's in China, the Chinese geeks are shooting holes in the concept and the software itself. In an email Han Teng Liao, a PhD student in Oxford, summarized the current state of the debate (and gave me permission to use it here).
First, China's most popular anti-virus software (www.360.cn)identifies the future guardian of the Chinese internet users as badware. (Source here). Second, the image processing software violates open source agreements. (Source here) Third, the software only works on Microsoft's IE, not on Firefox or other browsers.
Well, that sounds already fine for starters.
Rebecca MacKinnon gives a solid overview of all the issues involved here.

How to kill your China business

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:12:00 +0000

Paul French by Fantake via Flickr

Some years ago I helped an European chemical company to write their China history, a proud story of fast growing number. But when I got down to the boring details of purchases of companies, merges and acquisitions, and selling parts of their business to competitors, I was rather confused. Perfectly healthy business units were sold to competitors, potential and real disasters were bought. In short, it did not make a lot of sense.
"It's the headquarters." explained the China CEO of the company at the time. Every three, four, five years the multinational changed its course, focused on new priorities, decided to leave parts of the industry. In the Chinese context those decisions often did not make a lot of sense, or were even damaging its business. Those global adjustments made sometimes sense at a global level, but certainly not always.
The situation was not unique, and many China offices of multinationals struggled with their headquarters, but as long as their Chinese business was growing every year, nobody seriously complained.
That situation has now changed, explains this week's newsletter of Access Asia, and foreign brands are on a destructive road of erasing their footprints in China.
The newsletter describes how - very slowly - foreign brands learned how to do their business in China. But then, last year, disaster struck:

By and large, in most sectors of the retail business, they had the locals on the run both as brands and retailers. Then last year’s financial crash. Since then two mantras have surfaced – the West is in freefall; China is surprisingly robust. Our sales are declining in the West; growth is still apparent in China. Good news then for those teams in China who did all the hard work over the last decade?

Against all expectation China operations had to follow global orders from their headquarters to decrease their headcount. Access Asia:

The short term result? Literally hundreds of years of combinedChina experience at brands, from leading sportswear chains to fashion houses to electronic brands, all slung out with a month’s notice. Hundreds of years of language training; hundreds of years of wining, dining and building relationships with suppliers, agents and logistics partners; hundreds of years of consumer analysis, brand targeting, store opening and operational experience. All for the sake of next quarters’ numbers!

The long term result? Many of these sacked China Hands are now being scooped up at bargain prices by expanding and increasingly competitive Chinese brands – their former enemies are hiring them and getting all those combined years of experience, knowledge and relationships. Over the next few years, we might just see how much of a competitive advantage foreign brands in China have sacrificed for the sake of one quarters’ results.

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Paul French is director at Access Asia and speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him as a speaker, do get in touch.

State has to loosen ties on economy - Arthur Kroeber

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 16:37:00 +0000

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

Only by loosening the ties for private companies, who are in an disadvantaged position compared to state-owned enterprises, China can keep an economic growth of annually 8 percent, Arthur Kroeber explains in The Telegraph from the UK.

Faced with a decline in export demand for the foreseeable future, China must take difficult steps to create a new, private-sector dynamism in its still heavily state-controlled economy, concluded Arthur Kroeber of the Beijing-based Dragonomics consultancy.

“If China wants to maintain its 8pc GDP growth there needs to be a replacement found for the productivity growth that has been lost in the export sector.

“Ultimately what this will require is a deregulation of the service sector and significant reform in a financial sector that is set up to reward capital expenditure and heavy industry but does not serve the private sector or private enterprise at all well.

But China's state powers might be unwilling to do just that, Kroeber goes on to explain, although he remains optimistic in the long run.

“The problem is that control of the financial sector is central to maintaining the current political order in China. Reform will take power away from the state and put it in the hands of the private sector actors and that leaves the state with less and less control,” he said.

On a pessimistic view the Chinese state would be unwilling to sacrifice political power for economic efficiency gains, Mr Kroeber added, with long-term negative consequences for China’s emergence as a world economic power.

However optimists - a camp in which Mr Kroeber included himself - would point to the story of the last 30 years of economic reform in China and say it showed China’s communist leaders had, time again, showed they were willing to cede direct control over more and more parts of the Chinese economy.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you are interested in debating his viewpoints, do let us know.

How will the green dam break?

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:50:00 +0000

Image via Wikipedia

Very little time, these days, but when one of my readers this morning confessed she missed my viewpoint on a lot of developments in China, including the government's efforts to force PC producers in China to put some censorship software on each computer, I was tempted. Imagethief gave already a good overview of the issue, but I think some key observations are missing.
First a relative side issue: what is happening to the mobile phones? More and more people in China are using their mobile phones and if 3G gets into place - that still seems to be an if - also mobile phones should be equipped with the kind of software most mobile phones cannot have.

When the story on the Green Dam or Youth Escort software broke in the Wall Street Journal, I felt rather tired. Yet another internet story that will match the Pavlov-instincts among many Western media. Indeed, it took a few days, but then also the smaller newspapers had brought their traditional stories about the bad Chinese government and the poor Chinese internet users who had to miss on their daily fix of porn and political dissent.
What I have been missing in all analyses I have seen - and I must admit I have been trying to ignore them - is the main question you should ask in China and elsewhere when morally charged issues emerge. More than once a moral sauce is only there to hide more important questions. Who is making a buck here? Who has profound economic interests in getting this new censorship system in place?
To put that thought in this case into perspective we have to go back to an incident that happened with Tencent's QQ services, then and now China's more powerful social network company. Because of the compulsory censorship filters Tencent had to maintain massive filter operations at their servers, so huge the company's capacity could not deal with the high growth it faced. A few times its systems when down, because their corporate internet filters got overheated.
They then came with a solution that looked initially absolute brilliant. It forced its users during an update of the software to download also a personal internet filter on their own computer and save the company a lot of investments in increasing their own capacity. Of course, this was a stealth operation the users did not know.
Well, that went alright until somebody found the software device and then for a few weeks internet users were busy sending each other the lists of banned words, that made it finally also into the western media.

Over the past decade the filter technology had improved - read: grown - a lot, causing massive capacity problems. Despite investing much in improving internet capacity, China has one of the slowest internet systems because of these massive filter operations, both at internet companies and at the international gateways.
What is easier than to repeat the brilliant trick Tencent's QQ tried a few years ago. The filter problems will be moved to the PC of the internet users and free up capacity and capital at those internet companies and at the relevant ministries involved in filtering the internet.
And just like a few years ago, the system will fail. You can force larger internet companies to comply with the filter regulations. It is much harder to enforce that system on many million PC. It might take a few weeks for Chinese to go around the systems. Western media will have another field day in accusing "China" of damaging "free speech". And then life will return to normal and China's internet users will enjoy their only recently acquired freedom.

Moving into food and cooking in China - Jeremy Goldkorn

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 07:41:00 +0000

Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr

Beijing-based media tycoon Jeremy Goldkorn is expanding his empire into what is indisputable the most important subject in China: food and cooking. In a bilingual video blog In Kitchen Yo he starts off with something that seems rather easy. An omelette.

In this first episode, I am your host Jeremy Goldkorn, learning how to cook Hebei style spring omelettes with Mrs Yang of Chenjiapu village, in Hebei not too far from Beijing.

(I found the video almost impossible to view, but in China it might be easier.)

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Jeremy Goldkorn is also a speaker at the China Speakes Bureau. If you want to break eggs with him, or need him otherwise at your conference, do let us know.

World expo 2010 in Shanghai expects 60/70 million visitors

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 14:02:00 +0000

Image by neufcent9 via Flickr

Apologies for not having blogged a lot here - apart from reposts from the weblog of the China Speakers Bureau - but life has been pretty busy with events that would not really fit my blogging agenda. But now bit-by-bit the figures of next year's largest event in China - the Shanghai World Expo 2010 - are getting together, it is time to contribute a bit to the debate.
After the disastrous Beijing Olympics of 2008, disastrous in terms of economic and touristic targets, there is enough reason to be careful on all too optimistic noises coming from the diligent committee organizing the Shanghai event.
In some ways Shanghai seems to move smarter than Beijing. In stead of building a lot of white elephants that will be greatly underused after the 5-month event, Shanghai is mainly investing in infrastructure and its future. Of course, the expo will count a fair number of those buildings that will lose its function, but first those buildings are mostly build by foreign governments and when Shanghai will get one landmark building like Paris got with its Eiffel tower, that money might be well spend.
Also, much of the US$ 45 billion (whatever that is worth now) is going into subways and other improvements that will enhance the city greatly for the decades to come. Shaun Rein already noted that Shanghai is now spending more on its subway system than New York, and that seems a smart idea.
But when the organizing committee announced last week they would expect 400,000 visitors per day, an amazed representative from Liverpool twittered that this was the total amount of citizens living in his city. For my work at the international team of the WageIndicator I have obtained a calculator, a device I effectively tried to ignore earlier in my life, but now it became useful. We are talking here about 60 million visitors. Shanghai mayor Han Zheng must be using a different calculator, since the expects 70 million. Now, some of those visitors might be going twice, when they are anyway in Shanghai, but it sounded to me as a rather stunning figure.
Not in terms of logistics. Shanghai is now dealing each days with 20 million inhabitants, so compared to that normal operation, the World Expo is not that huge. But I wondered who all these people are.
Alright, ten million might be already living in Shanghai, but the other 60 million should be coming from elsewhere. Just like when the Beijing Olympics came into place, I was inclined to avoid Beijing during these months and I was not the only one, as we have seen from the dropping number of tourists. Just like in Beijing Shanghai has been increasing the number of visitors, visitors that did not emerge in Beijing, and might not emerge in Shanghai.
Would there be 60 million people outside Shanghai willing to visit this event? I feel it is a tough call. I might be too pessimistic, but the organizing committee seems clearly out of touch with reality.
Then we do not talk yet about the danger of very strict visa requirements. In Beijing before and during the 2008 Olympics many people who were still eager to visit the place or earn some pocket money could not get visas. Of course Shanghai Municipality will do its utmost best to avoid a similar predictment, but this is yet again an ideal moment for the ministry of foreign affairs to show they are in charge and not Shanghai. Internet censors will also draw their own line and limit access to the internet, like they did last week. Economic activity, including traffic, will be brought to a standstill to halt pollution and possible terrorist attacks.
This is of course the blackest scenario, but after the Beijing Olympics it seems also a very realistic one. I not convinced Shanghai will be able to avoid this scenario.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Why the Chinese might like a Hummer - Shaun Rein

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 08:26:00 +0000

Image via Wikipedia

When a Chinese company who never build a car bought the Hummer from GM, one of the largest problems of the Detroit car giant, many predicted huge problems. But Shaun Rein tells Forbes he sees also some positive sides on the deal. The assumption is that the Hummer will be sold on the Chinese market.

The "Chinese are not as environmentally conscious as American consumers so Hummer does not face the same consumer backlash," said Shaun Rein, head of China Market Research Group. Hummer sales started sliding in the U.S. several years ago on criticism of gas-guzzling engines. Meanwhile, pump prices are state-regulated in China and kept more stable, and average drives in China are not as long in the U.S., so gas costs may be lower, Rein added.

Limits on emissions are high on the political agenda, partly depending on where in China you are. SUV's that are permitted in Shanghai, are not allowed in Beijing.

More comments by Shaun Rein in Forbes on GM here.

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or other meeting, do let us know.

Using twitter for Zhao Ziyang's memoires - Jeremy Goldkorn

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:54:00 +0000

Zhao, together with Wen Jiabao via Wikipedia

China's internet users might have overstepped the vague line of what is permitted on the internet, by using twitter and its Chinese equivalents to exchange a banned book, says internet guru Jeremy Goldkorn today in Forbes.

"The Internet is currently rather creaky here, with all the usual filtering tools turned up to top level, but Chinese netizens were openly trading the PDF (digital edition) of the banned Zhao Ziyang's memoirs through Twitter and its Chinese clones until yesterday, when Twitter was blocked," said Jeremy Goldkorn, publisher and editor of Danwei Media.

While the authority of the internet censors is challenged very often, reviving the memory of disposed party secretary Zhao Ziyang was indeed a daring step. China's censor have been rather successful in removing the erstwhile very popular party leader from its history books and collective memory over the past two decades. Zhao opposed the usage of violence against the demonstrating students in Beijing in 1989.

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Jeremy Goldkorn is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in hearing his views, do get in touch.

Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr

Shanghai moving fast on Worldexpo2010 - Shaun Rein

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:41:00 +0000

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Shanghai might be better prepared to deal with its Worldexpo2010 compared to what happened with the Beijing Olympics, although Shaun Rein at CNBC is not without worries.
The city is pumping the equivalent of 45 billion US dollar into the city, but unlike Beijing, Shanghai is targeting the infrastructure, like subways, that will improve the city in the long run. Rein: "Shanghai is now spending more on its subway system than New York. It is moving very fast".
Because of the global financial crisis, sponsorship from outside China is weak and the disappointing results for the Beijing Olympic sponsors have made it additional hard for Shanghai to get money in. The US might actually not even have a pavilion at the site.
The business community is also concerned that anti-terrorism measures might limit access to visas or might actually bring again the economy to a halt, like during the Beijing Olympics, hurting many financial interests.
More at CNBC.
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Shaun Rein is a speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or meeting, do let us know.

Sino-American G2? Not any time soon - Arthur Kroeber

fons.tuinstra@gmail.com (Fons Tuinstra) — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 06:32:00 +0000

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

While China and the US are edging towards each other, the emergences of a new world order, excluding some of the old and upcoming new forces, is a distant prospect at best, writes Arthur Kroeber in todays Financial Times.

It is perfectly accurate to note that the US and China have a uniquely symbiotic relationship, that they will soon be the two largest national economies, and that many important global problems such as climate change cannot be solved without them.

Yet none of these facts implies a Sino-American world order is a viable or a desirable outcome. Logic and evidence suggest the opposite.

Both declining forces, like Europe and Japan, and other upcoming new economies like Brazil and India will be playing a role in the near future:

More important, a G2 construct does not obviously serve US or Chinese interests. In spite of its growth, China remains far weaker than the US in economic, political and military power. Its interest lies in not being a permanent junior partner in a global duumvirate but in working to build multilateral arrangements that will constrain US power.

More at the Financial Times.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your conference or meeting, do get in touch.